October 2025 DRIVING DATA
Key Observations From October's Reports
With more than 250 years of combined industry experience, ACT Research is the leader in market data, industry analysis, and forecasting for the commercial vehicle and transportation markets.
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“With freight rates remaining at low levels, a potential freight air-pocket inbound after a large goods pull-forward, tariff-driven goods inflation inbound, a pullback by private fleets after their significant 2023-2024 market share grab, uncertainty surrounding EPA’27, and ongoing uncertainty around US economic policy, there is little evidence to support a more constructive 2026 outlook. Additionally, the newly announced §232 tariffs on imported heavy trucks adds to uncertainty in the short term.”
- Ken Vieth, ACT's President and Senior Analyst
N.A. Commercial Vehicle OUTLOOK
1. Economy - The US economy is entering the final quarter of 2025 amid a mix of headwinds and tailwinds. On the upside, the economy has demonstrated greater-than-expected resilience, with real GDP growth revised higher, inflation pressures moderating relative to initial expectations, and equity markets continuing to reach record highs.
2. Medium Duty - August brought some good news for the medium-duty market, at least in the near term. Longer term, the market is still squarely entrenched in contraction territory.
3. Heavy Duty - Preliminary data for September indicated total NA Classes 5-8 orders of 36.3k units, a 36% decrease y/y. A lack of basic information regarding economic policy has kept uncertainty at high levels. Several rounds of tariffs have also reduced equipment demand.
4. Trailer - Net order intake in August was 9.1k units, 3% higher than July’s acceptance, and 18% higher than the subdued level of orders accepted last August. This puts the ytd order tally at 109.8k units, 23% higher than the 89.5k bookings for the first eight months of 2024.
5. Used Truck - Same dealer used Class 8 retail truck sales increased for the first time in five months in August. The 11% m/m gain was better than expected on a seasonally adjusted basis.
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N.A. Commercial Vehicle OUTLOOK?
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N.A. Commercial Vehicle OUTLOOK
Freight Forecast: U.S. Rate & Volume OUTLOOK
2. Aggregate DAT contract rates of $2.13 per mile, net fuel, in September were unchanged from August, 1₵ above the seasonal pattern, and up 0.1% y/y.
3. DAT US dry van TL spot rates, net fuel, were up 1₵ m/m and 2.5% y/y at $1.63 per mile in September.
4. Class 8 tractor orders rose in September to about 10,400 units from 6,080 in August.
5. Intermodal spot rates rose 1₵ m/m to $1.50 per mile in September, flat y/y.
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Freight Forecast: U.S. Rate & Volume OUTLOOK?
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Freight Forecast: U.S. Rate & Volume OUTLOOK
State of the Industry: N.A. Classes 5-8 Vehicles
Final North American Class 8 net orders totaled 20,666 units in September, down 44% y/y.
“This was the weakest September for orders since 2019 as tariffs, carrier profits, and regulatory limbo continue to drive industry uncertainty,” according to Carter Vieth, Research Analyst at ACT Research. “Worryingly, the new §232 on imported trucks risks onerous cost increases come November 1, at a time when industry demand is already under pressure. For-hire carriers remain stuck contending with the longest freight downturn in recent history, and private fleets have pulled back.”
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SOI: Classes 5-8?
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SOI: Classes 5-8
State of the Industry: U.S. Used Truck Classes 3-8
Same dealer used Class 8 retail truck sales increased m/m for a second time in September. The 2.4% m/m gain was just about on pace with the expected seasonal performance.
“September is typically the fourth best sales month of the year, running more than 5% above average,” said Steve Tam, Vice President at ACT Research. He continued, “The auction market poured on the steam in typical quarter-end fashion. Auction volumes surged 37% higher m/m in September. Dealers also found it easier to sell amongst themselves. The wholesale channel advanced 11% m/m. Combined, total market same dealer sales volumes rose 15% m/m in September. Compared to September 2024, the retail market was 4.6% stronger.”
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SOI: Used Truck?
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SOI: Used Truck
State of the Industry: U.S. Trailers
With the majority of 2025 in the rearview mirror, the US trailer market remains in “stay afloat” mode, as fleets continue their wait-and-see strategy.
“With lower build rates insufficient to offset soft orders in September, the industry backlog-to-build ratio fell 30 basis points sequentially, to 3.3 months,” said Jennifer McNealy, Director–CV Market Research & Publications at ACT Research. “September’s build rate and the current backlog commit the industry into the start of 2026.”
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SOI: U.S. Trailers?
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SOI: U.S. Trailers
