MARCH 2025 DRIVING DATA
Key Observations From March's Reports
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“With the tractor market already at a low ebb, tariffs are starting to weigh on business decision making, reducing early-in-the-year economic expectations. In addition to uncertainty leading to corporate indecision, the apparent policy path is likely to weigh on key US Class 8 market indicators including freight volumes and by extension, freight rates, consumer spending and sentiment.”
-Kenny Vieth, President and Senior Analyst
N.A. Commercial Vehicle OUTLOOK
1. Economy - Uncertainty surrounding Trump’s tariff policy, such as the proposed 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports (initially set to take effect on March 4 but later delated for Mexico, while dairy and lumber tariffs on Canada are now- as of March 7- being considered), adds further complexity to the outlook.
2. Medium Duty - At a preliminary 12,700 net orders for MD trucks, February will be well below average, contributing to outlook changes.
3. Heavy Duty - Whether the slowdown in orders is from moderating economic activity, a response to the newfound uncertainty, or both remains an open question. February Class 8 orders dropped 24% y/y.
4. Trailer - January net order intake was just below 21.3k units, down 13% from December, but 51% higher than the level accepted in January 2024. As noted the past few months, net orders are signaling that the worst of the downturn is clearly in the rearview mirror, and while not “good”, are moving toward “better.”
5. Used Truck - Same dealer used Class 8 retail truck sales held reasonably steady to start the new year. The 1.4% m/m decrease was milder than the expected 9% seasonal contraction indication by history.
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N.A. Commercial Vehicle OUTLOOK?
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N.A. Commercial Vehicle OUTLOOK
Freight Forecast: U.S. Rate & Volume OUTLOOK
2. DAT load postings increased 12% y/y in February, despite one fewer business day.
3. US dry van TL spot rates, net fuel, fell 12₵ m/m to $1.64 per mile in February, down 5₵ in SA terms.
4. The Driver Availability Index decreased 3.9 points to 52.4 in January, from 56.3 in December.
5. The Supply-Demand Balance grew at a faster rate in January, at 58.4 (SA), from 50.8 in December, as freight volumes grew and capacity contracted.
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Freight Forecast: U.S. Rate & Volume OUTLOOK?
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Freight Forecast: U.S. Rate & Volume OUTLOOK
State of the Industry: N.A. Classes 5-8 Vehicles
Final North American Class 8 net orders totaled 17.9k units in February, down 35% y/y.
“Economic uncertainty, fueled by the current administration’s policy/behavior, has largely stalled business planning,” according to Carter Vieth, Research Analyst at ACT Research. “Tractors orders of 11.2k units are down 42% y/y, which is likely attributable to private fleets stopping capacity additions after two years of strong demand, coupled with still weak for-hire carrier profitability.”
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SOI: Classes 5-8?
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SOI: Classes 5-8
State of the Industry: U.S. Used Truck Classes 3-8
The Class 8 average retail sale price fell by its largest percentage since June 2024, giving up 6.2% m/m in February.
“On a y/y basis, prices were 13% lower, while falling a lesser 8.2% ytd,” said Steve Tam, Vice President at ACT Research. “Same dealer used Class 8 retail truck sales ticked slightly higher in February. The 0.9% m/m increase was directionally consistent with but not as strong as the expected 5% seasonal advance indicated by history. January is typically the fourth weakest sales month of the year, running more than 3% below average.”
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SOI: Used Truck?
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SOI: Used Truck
State of the Industry: U.S. Trailers
February net trailer orders, just below 18.2k units, were down 17% from January and 13% below the level accepted in February 2024.
“Net orders are signaling that the worst of the downturn may be in the rearview mirror,” said Jennifer McNealy, Director–CV Market Research & Publications at ACT Research. “However, we caution that the industry’s annual period of seasonally stronger order months is ending, and weaker intake months are expected as we move into the late spring/summer, amid tariff uncertainty that is likely extending the ‘pause’ on ordering decisions.”
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SOI: U.S. Trailers?
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SOI: U.S. Trailers
