JANUARY 2025 DRIVING DATA
Key Observations From January's Reports
With more than 250 years of combined industry experience, ACT Research is the leader in market data, industry analysis, and forecasting for the commercial vehicle and transportation markets.
STAY UP-TO-DATE ON THE TRANSPORTATION MARKET MONTHLY
“The big story is healthy tailwinds driving demand in the form of US industrial policy and stimulus plans that had manufacturing and private construction expenditures running at record levels into the end of 2024. Much of the ~$2 trillion in stimulus from CHIPS, IRA, and IIJA put in place in 2021 and 2022 continues to be deployed into the economy, providing good visibility for equipment buyers."
-Kenny Vieth, President and Senior Analyst
N.A. Commercial Vehicle OUTLOOK
1. Economy - We expect 2025 will bring a mix of headwinds and tailwinds driven by policy uncertainty around tariffs, taxes, and interest rates. Given these risks and uncertainties, we remain cautious regarding our baseline outlook for 2025.
2. Medium Duty - December's preliminary net orders of 13,100 MD trucks (+/- 5.0%) mark the sixth consecutive month of below-trend demand.
3. Heavy Duty - Over the three months ending November, 38,100 orders were booked, which seasonally adjusts to a 146,900-units annualized rate.
4. Trailer - Trailer manufacturers who respond to our monthly survey in November indicated that, following the US presidential election, customers are feeling better about the future, with some calling it cautious optimism and others labeling it as less pessimistic.
5. Used Truck - Same dealer Class 8 retail truck sales slowed in November, returning to the all-too-familiar pattern of decline.
Want to read more from this month's
N.A. Commercial Vehicle OUTLOOK?
Learn more about ACT's
N.A. Commercial Vehicle OUTLOOK
Freight Forecast: U.S. Rate & Volume OUTLOOK
2. DAT load posting fell 15% y/y in early January before swinging positive again after winter storms.
3. US dry van TL spot rates, net fuel, rose 9₵ m/m to $1.73 per mile in December, rising 4₵ in SA terms.
4. The Driver Availability Index decreased 2.8 points to 52.8 in November, from 55.6 in October.
5. The Supply-Demand Balance grew more slowly in November to 52.0 (SA), from 57.2 in October, as freight volumes decreased and fleet capacity inched higher.
Want to read more from this month's
Freight Forecast: U.S. Rate & Volume OUTLOOK?
Learn more about ACT's
Freight Forecast: U.S. Rate & Volume OUTLOOK
State of the Industry: N.A. Classes 5-8 Vehicles
Final North American Class 8 net orders totaled 36.8k units in December, on very strong tractor demand.
“Despite generationally weak profits in for-hire, large fleets still need to replenish existing/aging equipment, and with the defensive assumption that EPA’s Clean Truck regulation will go ahead as is at the start of 2027, private fleets, who crucially have the budget, are likely continuing to focus on fleet age ahead of the large price increase expected for tractors,” according to Kenny Vieth, ACT’s President and Senior Analyst.
Want to read more from this month's
SOI: Classes 5-8?
Learn more about ACT's
SOI: Classes 5-8
State of the Industry: U.S. Used Truck Classes 3-8
The Class 8 average retail sale price floated higher in December, to $56,865, or 0.5% higher m/m.
“On a y/y basis, prices were 2% lower,” said Steve Tam, Vice President at ACT Research. “Prices are expected to remain stable at or around the current level before transitioning to y/y growth in early 2025.”
Want to read more from this month's
SOI: Used Truck?
Learn more about ACT's
SOI: Used Truck
State of the Industry: U.S. Trailers
December net trailer orders, at 24.3k units, were up 17% from November, but about 3% below the level accepted in December 2023.
“This brings full-year 2024 activity to 163.5k units, competing against a better 2023 order environment (236k) and fuller backlogs,” said Jennifer McNealy, Director–CV Market Research & Publications at ACT Research. “That said, December’s net orders of -3% are an improvement when compared to Q4’s -24% or the full-year drop of 31%, meaning the worst of the downturn is clearly in the rearview mirror, and while not ‘good,’ indicated movement toward ‘better.’”
Want to read more from this month's
SOI: U.S. Trailers?
Learn more about ACT's
SOI: U.S. Trailers
