September 2025 DRIVING DATA
Key Observations From September's Reports
With more than 250 years of combined industry experience, ACT Research is the leader in market data, industry analysis, and forecasting for the commercial vehicle and transportation markets.
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“On the tractor front, carrier profitability remains under pressure, inching closer to year four of the for-hire market downturn. The group of publicly traded TL carriers’ aggregated margins in Q2 were near 2008 recession levels, and the frontloading of goods ahead of tariffs in 1H of this year elevates the risk of a freight air pocket into the end of 2025."
- Ken Vieth, ACT's President and Senior Analyst
N.A. Commercial Vehicle OUTLOOK
1. Economy - Stagflationary risks are becoming more pronounced as tariff impacts increasingly appear in the data, with inflation edging higher as the labor market softens further.
2. Medium Duty - July’s medium duty market performance was a hodge podge of gains and losses, but with some interesting twists.
3. Heavy Duty - With 2026 orderboards opening this month, the next three-to-four months of orders will be critical for 2026, but uncertainty abounds.
4. Trailer - Net order intake in July was 8.8k units, 43% lower than June’s high-side surprise, but more than 19% higher than the subdued level of orders accepted last July.
5. Used Truck - Same dealer used Class 8 retail truck sales decreased for a fourth straight month in July. The 6.0% m/m drop was counter to the small expected seasonal increase.
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N.A. Commercial Vehicle OUTLOOK?
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N.A. Commercial Vehicle OUTLOOK
Freight Forecast: U.S. Rate & Volume OUTLOOK
2. Aggregate the DAT contract rates of $2.14 per mile, net fuel, in August were unchanged from July, 1₵ above the seasonal pattern, and up 1.0% y/y.
3. DAT US dry van TL spot rates, net fuel, were down 2₵ m/m but up 1.3% y/y at $1.62 per mile in August.
4. Class 8 tractor orders fell slightly in August to about 6,600 units from 6,892 in July.
5. Intermodal spot rates remained in the same 10₵/mi range of the past 17 months in August.
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Freight Forecast: U.S. Rate & Volume OUTLOOK?
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Freight Forecast: U.S. Rate & Volume OUTLOOK
State of the Industry: N.A. Classes 5-8 Vehicles
Final North American Class 8 net orders totaled 12,844 units in August, down 21% y/y.
“August marks the eighth consecutive month of y/y Class 8 order declines,” according to Carter Vieth, Research Analyst at ACT Research. “Even with the caveat that August is a seasonally weak order month, just ahead of next year’s orderboards opening, this month’s tractor orders of 7,493 units, down 34% y/y, were notably weak, but in line with the trend since April. Current tariff and regulatory purgatory continue to sow industry uncertainty.”
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SOI: Classes 5-8?
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SOI: Classes 5-8
State of the Industry: U.S. Used Truck Classes 3-8
Same dealer used Class 8 retail truck sales increased for the first time in five months in August.
“The 11% m/m gain was better than expected on a seasonally adjusted basis. August is typically the second best sales month of the year, running more than 8% above average,” said Steve Tam, Vice President at ACT Research. He continued, “The auction market turned in a respectable performance that was counter to its expected decline. Auction volumes floated 3.4% higher m/m in August. The wholesale channel saw its largest sequential gain since February 2024 in August, adding 35% m/m. Combined, total market same dealer sales volumes climbed 11% m/m in August.”
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SOI: Used Truck?
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SOI: Used Truck
State of the Industry: U.S. Trailers
“With two-thirds of 2025 in the rearview mirror, the US trailer market has transitioned from ‘cautious optimism’ to ‘stay afloat,’ as the modus operandi of wait-and-see continues.”
“Carrier profits remain weak, freight rate traction is incremental, private fleets are pulling back on asset investments, and Class 8 indicators continue to deteriorate. Within this environment, trailer demand remains subpar,” said Jennifer McNealy, Director–CV Market Research & Publications at ACT Research. “At this point, muted intake continues to be expected until policies and pricing are more transparent, and carrier profitability sustainably increases.”
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SOI: U.S. Trailers?
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SOI: U.S. Trailers
