April 2026 DRIVING DATA
Key Observations From April's Reports
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“The strength exhibited in the Class 8 market comes from a combination of two exogenous factors that are bolstering the critical HD vehicle demand driver, freight rates, supporting ACT’s ‘truckers buy trucks to make money’ adage.”
- Ken Vieth, ACT's President and Senior Analyst
N.A. Commercial Vehicle OUTLOOK
1. Economy - The conflict in the Middle East continues to dominate the global economic outlook, with a brief period of optimism giving way to renewed uncertainty. A two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran briefly raised expectations for stabilization in energy markets, including the potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. However, conflicting reports around the scope and enforcement of the agreement—as well as broader concerns about shipping conditions and potential transit restrictions—have called into question the durability of any near-term de-escalation.
2. Medium Duty - March’s preliminary 15,500 net orders for MD trucks (±5.0%) could represent a renewal of demand, but the jury is still out.
3. Class 8 - While improved spot and contract rates have been the primary drivers of higher Class 8 orders, regulatory burdens, associated with higher equipment costs in 2027, have helped spur great order activity.
4. Trailer - Net order intake in February was 13.2k units, 10k units below January’s level and 26% below year-ago order placements of 17.9k units, contrasting sharply with the 28,300 US tractor orders booked in the month. Seasonally adjusted (SA), orders were 12.3k units compared to a 20.1k SA rate in January, down nearly 39% sequentially.
5. Used Truck - Same dealer used Class 8 retail truck sales had a breakout month in February. The 23% m/m increase was directionally consistent with, but greater than, the expected 4% seasonal gain. February is the sixth weakest sales month of the year, running about 2% below average.
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N.A. Commercial Vehicle OUTLOOK?
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N.A. Commercial Vehicle OUTLOOK
Freight Forecast: U.S. Rate & Volume OUTLOOK
2. Aggregate DAT contract rates fell 2₵ m/m in March to $2.23 per mile, 3₵ below the seasonal pattern, and up 4.2% y/y.
3. DAT US dry van TL spot rates, net fuel, rose 18% y/y in March.
4. Class 8 tractor orders pulled back to about 24,200 units in March from 28,313 in February.
5. Spot truckload rates have been rising significantly for several months driven by several factors, but we see the return to driver shortage as a critical factor as the industry prepares for Roadcheck.
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Freight Forecast: U.S. Rate & Volume OUTLOOK?
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Freight Forecast: U.S. Rate & Volume OUTLOOK
State of the Industry: N.A. Classes 5-8 Vehicles
Final North American Class 8 net orders totaled 38,050 units in March, up 131% y/y.
“Despite the US’s war with Iran sending WTI oil prices up as much as 70% since the start of the conflict, Class 8 order strength continued in March,” according to Carter Vieth, Research Analyst at ACT Research. “Industry observers worry that elevated fuel costs could reverse recent rate gains, derailing the nascent for-hire recovery, but a driver shortage beginning recently has likely insulated spot rates from fuel headwinds, as immigration enforcement and new FMCSA rules are now beginning to lower the driver population. While recent spot and contract rate improvements have been the primary driver of higher Class 8 orders, regulatory burdens, associated with higher equipment costs in 2027, have helped spur greater order activity, too.”
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SOI: Classes 5-8?
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SOI: Classes 5-8
State of the Industry: U.S. Used Truck Classes 3-8
Same dealer used Class 8 retail truck sales built on February’s momentum in March.
“The 9.8% m/m increase was directionally consistent with, but not quite as strong as, the expected 12% seasonal gain. March is the strongest sales month of the year, running 10% above average,” said Steve Tam, Vice President at ACT Research. He continued, “The auction and wholesale markets both improved in March. Auction volumes rose 25% m/m on top of a second month of the quarter surprise. Wholesale dealer activity increased 40% m/m. Combined, March’s total market same dealer sales volumes were 29% higher m/m.”
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SOI: Used Truck?
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SOI: Used Truck
State of the Industry: U.S. Trailers
Three months into 2026 and the US trailer industry remains mired in the same challenging environment in which it operated throughout 2025.
“Demand for trailers improved in March, but demand was weak across Q1. Carrier profits, although benefitting from an uptick in freight rates and a tightening driver pool, remain low, with government policy and geopolitical instabilities keeping customers cautious. With equipment demand fundamentals transitioning in Q1, net order intake in March jumped to 18,800 units, up more than 42% from February. This brought the Q1’26 order tally to 55.4k trailers, about 9% less than were ordered during Q1’25,” said Jennifer McNealy, Director–CV Market Research & Publications at ACT Research. “Cancellations gyrated throughout 2025, before returning to a more subdued rate to start 2026. March’s rate of 2.3%, as a percentage of backlog, returned the industry cancellations to ‘elevated’ territory from the middle of the acceptable range reported last month. Unlike the last few months, though, data in March showed high cancellations in nearly all segments.”
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SOI: U.S. Trailers?
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SOI: U.S. Trailers
