MAY 2025 DRIVING DATA
Key Observations From May's Reports
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“If there is a silver lining for the industry, it is the expected delay in targeted GHG-3 mandates that promised to make for a particularly challenging environment in the 2028-2030 period, as different segments of the Class 8 market were targeted. Trump’s EPA, while still on the fence for the EPA’s Clean Truck mandate in 2027, has signaled that GHG-3 is viewed as regulatory overreach and unlikely to survive, allowing forecasts to float higher.”
-Kenny Vieth, President and Senior Analyst
N.A. Commercial Vehicle OUTLOOK
1. Economy - Weak macroeconomic fundamentals spread across all sectors of the economy. Consumer sentiment has undoubtedly soured since the November election. Concerns about higher prices due to tariffs squeezing purchasing power, a weakening labor maker, and disappointment tied to falling asset prices have caused confidence to plummet to levels typically seen only during recessions.
2. Medium Duty - At a preliminary 8,300 net orders for MD trucks (+/- 5.0%), the current forecast decline is materializing as expected.
3. Heavy Duty - It is little wonder that Class 8 demand was particularly hard hit in April, with orders falling to a 59-month low of 7,600 units, a 52% y/y decline.
4. Trailer - The March build rate, at 864 units per day (upd), was higher than February’s 782 upd rate. With one additional production day, build rose 15% m/m to nearly 18,200 units.
5. Used Truck - Same dealer used Class 8 retail truck sales increased in March. The 7.3% m/m gain was directionally consistent with, but not as robust as, the expected 12% seasonal advance.
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N.A. Commercial Vehicle OUTLOOK?
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N.A. Commercial Vehicle OUTLOOK
Freight Forecast: U.S. Rate & Volume OUTLOOK
1. The shipments component of the Cass Freight Index® rose 0.4% in April m/m.
2. Aggregate DAT contract rates of $2.16 per mile, net fuel, in April, were flat from March.
3. US dry van TL spot rates, net fuel, fell 3₵ m/m to $1.57 per mile in April, also down 4₵ in SA terms.
4. The Driver Availability Index rose 3.0 points, to 54.0 in April from 51.0 in March.
5. Intermodal spot rates fell 2₵ m/m in April to $1.46 per mile, including fuel, 2₵ below the normal seasonal pattern.
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Freight Forecast: U.S. Rate & Volume OUTLOOK?
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Freight Forecast: U.S. Rate & Volume OUTLOOK
State of the Industry: N.A. Classes 5-8 Vehicles
Final North American Class 8 net orders totaled 8.2k units in April, down 48% y/y.
“April orders were at levels not seen since the onset of the pandemic, when similar uncertainty reigned,” according to Carter Vieth, Research Analyst at ACT Research. “In addition to self-inflicted economic stress, Q1’25 saw publicly traded TL carriers’ net income margins fall to the lowest levels since Q1’10—an ominous signal.”
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SOI: Classes 5-8?
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SOI: Classes 5-8
State of the Industry: U.S. Used Truck Classes 3-8
The Class 8 average retail sale price ticked 1.5% higher sequentially in April. On a year-over-year basis, prices were 1.9% lower.
“Compared to March, miles decreased 4.9% month-over-month, contributing to stronger pricing,” said Steve Tam, Vice President at ACT Research. He continued, “April is typically the seventh strongest sales month of the year, running about 2% below average. Combined, total used sales were off the year-ago pace by 10%, leaving our outlook for 2025 unchanged.”
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SOI: Used Truck?
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SOI: Used Truck
State of the Industry: U.S. Trailers
Trailer net order intake in April was just below 9.4k units, down more than 57% from March and about 32% lower than the subdued level of orders accepted in April 2024.
“April’s net order intake puts the year-to-date order tally at 70.5k units, 13% higher than the 62.2k bookings for the first four months of 2024,” said Jennifer McNealy, Director–CV Market Research & Publications at ACT Research. “While appearing to be better news, we caution that the industry’s annual period of seasonally stronger order months has ended, and weaker intake months are expected from now through mid-Q3.”
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SOI: U.S. Trailers?
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SOI: U.S. Trailers
