November 2025 DRIVING DATA
Key Observations From November's Reports
With more than 250 years of combined industry experience, ACT Research is the leader in market data, industry analysis, and forecasting for the commercial vehicle and transportation markets.
STAY UP-TO-DATE ON THE TRANSPORTATION MARKET MONTHLY
“The initial tariff roll out in April sparked a mini-prebuy and pushed Class 8 tractor retail sales above replacement levels, further prolonging the longest for-hire downturn in recent memory.”
- Ken Vieth, ACT's President and Senior Analyst
N.A. Commercial Vehicle OUTLOOK
1. Economy - The economic costs of the shutdown have been substantial, with federal employees and contractors missing multiple pay periods, government services disrupted, and roughly 40 million Americans experiencing interruptions in SNAP benefits. According to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), the shutdown has already reduced Q4’25 GDP growth by roughly 1 percentage point (pp) on an annualized basis.
2. Medium Duty - October’s preliminary 11,900 net orders for MD trucks (+/-5.0%) provided a positive m/m comparison, but longer-term demand remains depressed.
3. Heavy Duty - Preliminary Class 8 orders totaled 24,500 units in October, down 20% y/y, a notably weak number when one takes into consideration October is the seasonally strongest month for orders with a 25% seasonal factors.
4. Trailer - Net order intake in September was 11.4k units, 25% higher than August but 5% lower than the subdued level of orders accepted last September. This puts the ytd order tally at 121.2k units, 20% higher than the 101.4k bookings for the first nine months of 2024, with Q3’25 orders more than 8% higher compared to Q3’24.
5. Used Truck - Same dealer used Class 8 retail truck sales increased m/m for a second time in September. The 2.4% m/m gain was just about on pace with the expected seasonal performance. September is typically the fourth best sales month of the year, running more than 5% above average.
Want to read more from this month's
N.A. Commercial Vehicle OUTLOOK?
Learn more about ACT's
N.A. Commercial Vehicle OUTLOOK
Freight Forecast: U.S. Rate & Volume OUTLOOK
1. The shipments component of the Cass Freight Index® fell 4.3%/ m/m in October, or 2.1% m/m in seasonal adjusted (SA) terms. Reversing the gain in September.
2. Aggregate DAT contract rates of $2.16 per mile, net fuel, in October, were up 2₵ from September, 3₵ above the seasonal pattern, and up 0.6% y/y.
3. DAT US dry van TL spot rates, net fuel, were up 4₵ m/m and 2.5% y/y at $1.67 per mile in October.
4. Class 8 tractor orders rose in October to about 12,700 units, from 10,799 in September.
5. The LTL demand outlook remains challenged on several fronts, with private fleet insourcing impacting demand and trade war effects likely to increase.
Want to read more from this month's
Freight Forecast: U.S. Rate & Volume OUTLOOK?
Learn more about ACT's
Freight Forecast: U.S. Rate & Volume OUTLOOK
State of the Industry: N.A. Classes 5-8 Vehicles
Final North American Class 8 net orders totaled 24,403 units in October, down 20% y/y.
“Ongoing weakness and uncertainty have muted activity at the start of peak order season,” according to Carter Vieth, Research Analyst at ACT Research. “Data center growth, while extensive, is vocationally, not freight, intensive. Key freight generators like manufacturing and housing remain sluggish or are in an outright downturn. On top of that, the payback period, following the freight pull-forward ahead of tariffs, has roosted in Q4, counterbalancing some of the current supply tightening.”
Want to read more from this month's
SOI: Classes 5-8?
Learn more about ACT's
SOI: Classes 5-8
State of the Industry: U.S. Used Truck Classes 3-8
Same dealer used Class 8 retail truck sales decreased in October. The 4.9% m/m decline was counter to expected seasonal performance.
“October is typically the third best sales month of the year, running nearly 8% above average,” said Steve Tam, Vice President at ACT Research. He continued, “Surprisingly, the October auction market maintained some of September’s vigor. Auction volumes advanced 19% m/m in October. Dealers also built on September’s momentum. The wholesale channel added 2.5% m/m. Combined, total market same dealer sales volumes rose 5.2% m/m in October.”
Want to read more from this month's
SOI: Used Truck?
Learn more about ACT's
SOI: Used Truck
State of the Industry: U.S. Trailers
With the majority of 2025 in the rearview mirror, the US trailer market remains in “stay afloat” mode, as fleets continue their wait-and-see strategy.
“October’s trailer cancellation rate, as a percentage of backlog, was a more subdued 1.3% versus last month’s overstated 5.6%. Data continued to show elevated cancellations in reefer and tank segments,” said Jennifer McNealy, Director–CV Market Research & Publications at ACT Research. “The largest level of cancels came from the tank segments, attributed to a decline in oil/gas activity, in general.”
Want to read more from this month's
SOI: U.S. Trailers?
Learn more about ACT's
SOI: U.S. Trailers
