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1. Economy - The US outlook remains stable and largely unchanged: no recession, growth on or slightly above trend, and a soft landing with tamed inflation enabling Fed rate cuts in late spring or early summer.
2. Medium Duty - Following a strong finish to 2023, the MD market limped into 2024. Production and sales were 5.7% and 18% lower m/m, respectively, in January 2024.
3. Class 8 - With pent-up tractor demand largely consumed, the Dashboard’s string of very negative topline scores points to weak US tractor demand in 2024.
4. Trailer - Total cancellations took a turn for the worst in January, jumping to 3.2% of the backlog from December’s elevated 1.7% rate.
5. Used Truck - December same dealer Class 8 used retail truck sales contracted (-12% m/m) more than indicated by history. Combined, the total market same dealer sales volume fell 35% m/m in January.
1. The shipments component of the Cass Freight Index® rose 7.3% m/m in February.
2. TL market is at marginal cost, but tractor fleet is still growing, and chances of a 2027 prebuy starting this year have risen considerably.
3. US dry van TL spot rates, net fuel, fell 12₵ per mile m/m to $1.60 per mile in February, and is still trending lower in early March.
4. The ACT Driver Availability Index increased 4.5 points m/m to 55.4 in January.
5. The Supply-Demand Balance decreased in January to 50.2 (SA), from 54.2 in December.
Final February Class 8 net orders, at 27,745 units were up 16% y/y. Total Classes 5-7 orders were up 8.6% y/y at 19,127 units.
“Given ongoing weak for-hire economics, we believe private fleet capacity additions continue as the driver of US tractor orders above replacement levels,” according to Kenny Vieth, ACT’s President and Senior Analyst. “US tractor orders totaled 17,213 units, up 32% y/y. The vocational market remains strong, particularly in the US, where nearshoring and government programs have spurred investment.”
The used Class 8 average retail sale price improved 4.4% m/m to $62,100 in February.
“On a year-over-year basis, used retail prices were 14% lower,” said Steve Tam, Vice President at ACT Research. “Until recently, our pricing expectations were for a return to month-over-month growth toward the end of 2024 as the most likely course. Despite February’s encouraging results, recent developments are putting pressure on the forecast. Specifically, we are pushing expectations for the return to sustained month-over-month growth further out.”
Weak freight rates continue to reduce carriers’ willingness to invest in equipment. February net orders, at 20,500 units, were nearly 21% lower y/y, but 6.6k units above January’s intake.
“Seasonally adjusted, February’s orders fell to 20,100 units compared to a 12,600 seasonally adjusted rate in January,” said Jennifer McNealy, Director–CV Market Research & Publications at ACT Research. “On that basis, orders increased 59% m/m. Dry van orders contracted 18% y/y, with reefers and flats both down 31% compared to February 2023.”