March 2026 DRIVING DATA
Key Observations From March's Reports
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“In our view, the rise in spot freight rates has given deep-pocketed, large fleets confidence that 2026 will be an improvement from the past three years spent in the trough and is arguably the most important factor driving improved Class 8 order activity. Class 8 orders totaled 30,800 units in January, up 20% y/y, and preliminary February orders totaled 46,200 units, jumping 156% y/y.”
- Ken Vieth, ACT's President and Senior Analyst
N.A. Commercial Vehicle OUTLOOK
1. Economy - Before the conflict with Iran, the US economy reflected moderate underlying resilience. The reopening of the federal government was expected to provide a temporary boost to Q1’26 GDP, while the earlier surge in trade activity tied to tariff frontrunning appears to have largely normalized and will likely act as a modest drag. Even so, the broader expansion remains intact, with the economy on track to record a sixth consecutive year of real GDP growth above 2% in 2026. The primary concern, however, is the continued lack of breadth in the growth drivers supporting the expansion.
2. Medium Duty - February’s preliminary 12,200 net orders for MD trucks (±5.0%) are above trend, but they fall well short of supporting the current forecast.
3. Class 8 - With EPA’27 cost increases on the horizon, an aging fleet, and growing confidence that the winter run-up in freight rates will remain sticky, Class 8 market strength continued into February, with preliminary orders surging to 46,200 units.
4. Trailer - Net order intake in January was 23.1k units, just 2k units less than December’s intake level and 9% above the year-ago placements of 21.1k units.
5. Used Truck - Same dealer used Class 8 retail truck sales returned to sequential decline in January. The 12% m/m decrease was directionally consistent with, but greater than, the expected 6% seasonal drop.
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N.A. Commercial Vehicle OUTLOOK?
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N.A. Commercial Vehicle OUTLOOK
Freight Forecast: U.S. Rate & Volume OUTLOOK
1. The shipments components of the Cass Freight Index fell 7.1% y/y but rose 10.4% m/m in February.
2. Aggregate DAT contract rates rose 2₵ m/m in February to $2.24 per mile, 4₵ above the seasonal pattern.
3. DAT US dry van TL spot rates, net fuel, rose 24% y/y in February.
4. Class 8 tractor orders jumped to about 30,000 units in February, as spot rates continued to surge.
5. Intermodal spot rates rose 2₵ per mile m/m in February to $1.45.
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Freight Forecast: U.S. Rate & Volume OUTLOOK?
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Freight Forecast: U.S. Rate & Volume OUTLOOK
State of the Industry: N.A. Classes 5-8 Vehicles
Final North American Class 8 net orders totaled 46,440 units in February, up 157% y/y.
“Buoyed by a more optimistic for-hire outlook, the need to refresh an aging fleet, and regulatory costs on the horizon, Class 8 order strength continued in February,” according to Carter Vieth, Research Analyst at ACT Research. “Aggregate spot rates, excluding fuel, are up roughly ~40¢ since late November, and ended February up 20% y/y. While some of this strength is weather-related, the responsiveness of rates despite flat demand suggests capacity is tightening and the market is approaching balance. Rates should ease as weather conditions normalize, but with more aggressive FMCSA enforcement on nondomiciled drivers, along with the upcoming produce season and Roadcheck, the window for material declines appears limited.”
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SOI: Classes 5-8?
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SOI: Classes 5-8
State of the Industry: U.S. Used Truck Classes 3-8
Same dealer used Class 8 retail truck sales had a breakout month in February.
“The 23% m/m increase was directionally consistent with, but much greater than, the expected 4% seasonal gain. February is usually the sixth weakest sales month of the year, running about 2% below average,” said Steve Tam, Vice President at ACT Research. He continued, “The auction and wholesale markets also both improved in February. Auction volumes ballooned 127% m/m as they recovered from their typical first month of the quarter blues. Wholesale dealer activity increased 22% m/m. Combined, February total market same dealer sales volumes surpassed January by 51%.”
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SOI: Used Truck?
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SOI: Used Truck
State of the Industry: U.S. Trailers
End-of-2025 challenges remained on the horizon as the trailer industry entered 2026.
“Cancellations gyrated wildly throughout 2025, before returning to a more subdued rate to start 2026. February’s rate of 0.5%, as a percentage of backlog, fell well below the target range for the first time in 13 months, following an improved but still-elevated 1.6% reading in January,” said Jennifer McNealy, Director–CV Market Research & Publications at ACT Research. “Data continued to show elevated cancellations in the tank segments, coming primarily from carriers and attributed to a decline in oil/gas activity. However, if high oil prices continue, tank trailer cancellations are unlikely to continue at elevated levels.”
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SOI: U.S. Trailers?
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SOI: U.S. Trailers
