ACT's Top 5 Freight Focus - August 2025

1. The shipments component of the Cass Freight Index® declined 1.8% in July m/m, and fell 1.7% m/m in SA terms.

2. Aggregate DAT contract rates of $2.15 per mile, net fuels, in July, were up 1₵ from June, 1₵ below the seasonal pattern, and down 1.1% y/y.

3. DAT US dry can TL spot rates, net fuel, were unchanged both m/m and y/y at $1.63 per mile in July.

4. Class 8 tractor orders rebounded to 6,600 units in July from 4,727 in June.

5. Intermodal spot rates have settled down after a brief jump in late June, but were still up 2.2% y/y.

Freight volumes are likely to hit additional trade-related air pockets in the coming quarters, after a reprieve in Q3. Tariffs are also raising equipment prices, and heavy truck makers are reducing production. In 2H’25, NA Class 8 production is set to fall more than 25% from 1H’25, as discussed in the latest release of the Freight Forecast: Rate and Volume OUTLOOK report.

“As the economy is likely to absorb the effects of tariffs over the next several months, our freight demand outlook remains cautious,” according to Tim Denoyer, ACT Research’s Vice President and Senior Analyst. “But the silver lining of lower vehicle production and lost manufacturing jobs is that tighter capacity will likely drive freight back to the for-hire market in the future.”

“As goods prices rise, lower unit demand may loosen market equilibrium for some time before the effects start to support freight rates, and we see a soft holiday shipping season,” Denoyer concluded.

Freight Forecast Report Overview

The monthly 61-page ACT Freight Forecast report provides analysis and forecasts for a broad range of U.S. freight measures, including the Cass Freight Index, Cass Truckload Linehaul Index, and DAT spot and contract rates by trailer type for the U.S. and Canada. The service provides monthly, quarterly, and annual predictions for the TL, LTL, and intermodal markets over a two- to three-year time horizon, including capacity, volumes, and rates. The Freight Forecast provides unmatched detail on the freight rate outlook, helping companies across the supply chain plan with greater visibility and less uncertainty.

ACT Research Overview

ACT Research is recognized as the leading publisher of commercial vehicle truck, trailer, and bus industry data, market analysis and forecasts for the North America and China markets. ACT’s analytical services are used by all major North American truck and trailer manufacturers and their suppliers, as well as banking and investment companies. ACT Research is a contributor to the Blue Chip Economic Indicators and a member of the Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Panel. ACT Research executives have received peer recognition, including election to the Board of Directors of the National Association for Business Economics, appointment as Consulting Economist to the National Private Truck Council, and the Lawrence R. Klein Award for Blue Chip Economic Indicators’ Most Accurate Economic Forecast over a four-year period. ACT Research senior staff members have earned accolades including Chicago Federal Reserve Automotive Outlook Symposium Best Overall Forecast, Wall Street Journal Top Economic Outlook, and USA Today Top 10 Economic Forecasters. More information can be found at www.actresearch.net.

Tim Denoyer, VP & Senior Analyst

ACT Research

Click here to connect on LinkedIn

AUGUST 2025 FREIGHT FOCUS

Tariff Effects Still in Early Innings

STAY UP-TO-DATE ON THE FREIGHT MARKETS MONTHLY