ACT Research still thinks private fleet capacity additions are likely the main reason for-hire freight volumes continue to decline, according to the latest release of the Freight Forecast: Rate and Volume OUTLOOK report.

“As cost economics reassert their influence, the long-term trend toward outsourcing will eventually return, but the extended 2023 and 2024 downcycle was characterized by an extraordinary post-pandemic insourcing. This is now slowing, which suggests improving for-hire demand trends, but 2025 and 2026 capacity decisions will be characterized by looming industry regulations,” shared Tim Denoyer, ACT Research’s Vice President and Senior Analyst.

“In recent Q4 results, the large TL fleets reported capacity reductions of about 5% y/y, with little sequential change. New Class 8 tractor sales tell us that overall, capacity is still being added. News like the recent divestiture of Walmart’s Canada fleet to a for-hire provider suggest the insourcing trend may be running its course, but much will depend on the changing regulatory environment,” Denoyer concluded. “Perhaps the most important takeaway this month is that while volumes remain soft, capacity has adjusted enough to result in modestly higher rates. In addition to tariffs, this could be a key theme of 2025.”

Freight Forecast Report Overview

The monthly 58-page ACT Freight Forecast report provides analysis and forecasts for a broad range of U.S. freight measures, including the Cass Freight Index, Cass Truckload Linehaul Index, and DAT spot and contract rates by trailer type. The service provides monthly, quarterly, and annual predictions for the TL, LTL, and intermodal markets over a two- to three-year time horizon, including capacity, volumes, and rates. The Freight Forecast provides unmatched detail on the freight rate outlook, helping companies across the supply chain plan with greater visibility and less uncertainty.

ACT Research Overview

ACT Research is recognized as the leading publisher of commercial vehicle truck, trailer, and bus industry data, market analysis and forecasts for the North America and China markets. ACT’s analytical services are used by all major North American truck and trailer manufacturers and their suppliers, as well as banking and investment companies. ACT Research is a contributor to the Blue Chip Economic Indicators and a member of the Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Panel. ACT Research executives have received peer recognition, including election to the Board of Directors of the National Association for Business Economics, appointment as Consulting Economist to the National Private Truck Council, and the Lawrence R. Klein Award for Blue Chip Economic Indicators’ Most Accurate Economic Forecast over a four-year period. ACT Research senior staff members have earned accolades including Chicago Federal Reserve Automotive Outlook Symposium Best Overall Forecast, Wall Street Journal Top Economic Outlook, and USA Today Top 10 Economic Forecasters. More information can be found at www.actresearch.net.

Tim Denoyer, VP & Senior Analyst

ACT Research