Freight volumes have been growing since late 2023, yet most for-hire trucking volume indicators continue to decline or remain soft. When for-hire freight volumes return depends on when the private fleet insourcing trend of the past two years plays out. Strong November Class 8 orders push that time further into the future.

“Private fleets continue to show a surprising willingness to add capacity despite wider than normal cost disadvantages, which makes more sense in the context of significant equipment cost increases ahead in 2027,” shared Tim Denoyer, ACT Research’s Vice President and Senior Analyst. “Although private fleets may continue to limit demand in the for-hire market, for-hire activity will likely benefit from slowing private fleet growth and temporary pre-tariff shipping in 1H’25.”

“Though a sugar high of freight activity is likely in 1H’25 as shippers build inventory ahead of likely tariffs and port strikes, these pull-forwards will have paybacks once tariffs and a labor contract are in place, likely by 2026. Otherwise, as capacity still seems set to accelerate in 2026, for-hire freight conditions may stay soft and choppy for some time,” he added. 

“Though contract rates have tentatively started to rise, ongoing capacity additions despite low returns suggest a sluggish for-hire freight cycle,” Denoyer concluded.

Freight Forecast Report Overview

The monthly 58-page ACT Freight Forecast report provides analysis and forecasts for a broad range of U.S. freight measures, including the Cass Freight Index, Cass Truckload Linehaul Index, and DAT spot and contract rates by trailer type. The service provides monthly, quarterly, and annual predictions for the TL, LTL, and intermodal markets over a two- to three-year time horizon, including capacity, volumes, and rates. The Freight Forecast provides unmatched detail on the freight rate outlook, helping companies across the supply chain plan with greater visibility and less uncertainty.

ACT Research Overview

ACT Research is recognized as the leading publisher of commercial vehicle truck, trailer, and bus industry data, market analysis and forecasts for the North America and China markets. ACT’s analytical services are used by all major North American truck and trailer manufacturers and their suppliers, as well as banking and investment companies. ACT Research is a contributor to the Blue Chip Economic Indicators and a member of the Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Panel. ACT Research executives have received peer recognition, including election to the Board of Directors of the National Association for Business Economics, appointment as Consulting Economist to the National Private Truck Council, and the Lawrence R. Klein Award for Blue Chip Economic Indicators’ Most Accurate Economic Forecast over a four-year period. ACT Research senior staff members have earned accolades including Chicago Federal Reserve Automotive Outlook Symposium Best Overall Forecast, Wall Street Journal Top Economic Outlook, and USA Today Top 10 Economic Forecasters. More information can be found at www.actresearch.net.

Tim Denoyer, VP & Senior Analyst

ACT Research