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SEPTEMBER 2025 FREIGHT FOCUS

Trade War Headwinds Bearing Down

 

Our freight rate and volume forecasting services are the bridge between ACT's leadership in Class 8 forecasting and award-winning economic analysis, with ACT's transportation industry experience.

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“As the economy is likely to absorb the effects of tariffs over the next several months, our freight demand outlook remains cautious. Container shipping activity is set to fall sharply, which will likely affect intermodal most acutely from a surface freight perspective.”

-Tim Denoyer, VP & Sr. Analyst

ACT's Top 5 Freight Focus - September 2025

1. The shipments component of the Cass Freight Index® declined 1.5% in August m/m in both nominal and seasonally adjusted (SA) terms. 


2. Aggregate DAT contract rates of $2.14 per mile, net fuel, in August were unchanged from July, 1₵ above the seasonal pattern, and up 1.0% y/y. 

 

3. DAT US dry van TL spot rates, net fuel, were down 2₵ m/m but up 1.3% y/y at $1.62 per mile in August. 

 

4. Class 8 tractor orders fell slightly in August to about 6,600 units from 6,892 in July. 

 

5. Intermodal spot rates remained in the same 10₵/mi range of the past 17 months in August. 

 

Cass Freight Index - Shipments - August 2025

The freight market was nearing balance in late 2024 and early 2025, with rates and volume trends improving. Since the start of the trade war, momentum has slowed sharply, as discussed in the latest release of the Freight Forecast: Rate and Volume OUTLOOK report.

“Extra pre-tariff equipment purchases and ongoing volume softness have kept truckload market conditions from tightening this year, and most of the adverse effects of tariffs are still to come,” according to Tim Denoyer, ACT Research’s Vice President and Senior Analyst. “As the economy is likely to absorb the effects of tariffs over the next several months, our freight demand outlook remains cautious. Container shipping activity is set to fall sharply, which will likely affect intermodal most acutely from a surface freight perspective.”

“We see growing evidence of private fleets reining in capacity after a major expansion from 2022-2024. Class 8 tractor production will drop by more than 30% from 1H to 2H this year, and this reversal will eventually support a recovery in for-hire demand,” Denoyer concluded.

Freight Forecast Report Overview

The monthly 61-page ACT Freight Forecast report provides analysis and forecasts for a broad range of U.S. freight measures, including the Cass Freight Index, Cass Truckload Linehaul Index, and DAT spot and contract rates by trailer type for the U.S. and Canada. The service provides monthly, quarterly, and annual predictions for the TL, LTL, and intermodal markets over a two- to three-year time horizon, including capacity, volumes, and rates. The Freight Forecast provides unmatched detail on the freight rate outlook, helping companies across the supply chain plan with greater visibility and less uncertainty.

ACT Research Overview

ACT Research is recognized as the leading publisher of commercial vehicle truck, trailer, and bus industry data, market analysis and forecasts for the North America and China markets. ACT’s analytical services are used by all major North American truck and trailer manufacturers and their suppliers, as well as banking and investment companies. ACT Research is a contributor to the Blue Chip Economic Indicators and a member of the Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Panel. ACT Research executives have received peer recognition, including election to the Board of Directors of the National Association for Business Economics, appointment as Consulting Economist to the National Private Truck Council, and the Lawrence R. Klein Award for Blue Chip Economic Indicators’ Most Accurate Economic Forecast over a four-year period. ACT Research senior staff members have earned accolades including Chicago Federal Reserve Automotive Outlook Symposium Best Overall Forecast, Wall Street Journal Top Economic Outlook, and USA Today Top 10 Economic Forecasters. More information can be found at www.actresearch.net.

 

Tim Denoyer HeadshotTim Denoyer, VP & Senior Analyst

ACT Research 

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Key Items Covered Monthly In the ACT Freight Forecast:

  • ACT Class 8 Tractor Sales Forecast
  • Cass Shipment Index Forecast®
  • Cass Truckload Linehaul Index® Forecast
  • DAT Dry Van Spot Rate Forecast
  • DAT Refrigerated Spot Rate Forecast
  • DAT Flatbed Spot Rate Forecast
  • LTL Tonnage and Yield Forecast
  • Intermodal Load and Rate Forecast
  • U.S. Economic Forecast

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