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OCTOBER 2025 FREIGHT FOCUS

Capacity Contraction Quickens

 

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“In our view, lower capacity in an otherwise stable demand environment could move the cycle forward and actually create for-hire demand by reversing the insourcing of recent years. But this will take time.”

-Tim Denoyer, VP & Sr. Analyst

ACT's Top 5 Freight Focus - October 2025

1. The shipments component of the Cass Freight Index® rose 2.5% m/m in September, 1.5% m/m in seasonally adjusted (SA) terms, reversing a 1.5% SA drop in August. 


2. Aggregate DAT contract rates of $2.13 per mile, net fuel, in September were unchanged from August, 1₵ above the seasonal pattern, and up 0.1% y/y.

 

3. DAT US dry van TL spot rates, net fuel, were up 1₵ m/m and 2.5% y/y at $1.63 per mile in September.

 

4. Class 8 tractor orders rose in September to about 10,400 units from 6,080 in August.

 

5. Intermodal spot rates rose 1₵ m/m to $1.50 per mile in September, flat y/y.

 

Cass Freight Index - Shipments August 2025

While demand trends are mixed and the outlook remains cloudy, capacity continues to contract, as discussed in the latest release of the Freight Forecast: Rate and Volume OUTLOOK report.

“Class 8 tractor production is on track to decline about 35% from 1H to 2H this year, to a rate several thousand trucks per month below what is needed to maintain the fleet size,” according to Tim Denoyer, ACT Research’s Vice President and Senior Analyst. “In our view, lower capacity in an otherwise stable demand environment could move the cycle forward and actually create for-hire demand by reversing the insourcing of recent years. But this will take time.”

“The recent trends in our ACT Driver Availability Index suggests the driver market is no longer loose, but not yet tight. This index, from a survey of medium and large fleets, needed to fall below 40 the last two cycles before rates responded. The new rules on nondomiciled drivers could tighten driver capacity over the next one-to-two years, but heavy truck tariff costs are starting to constrain equipment capacity,” Denoyer concluded.

Freight Forecast Report Overview

The monthly 61-page ACT Freight Forecast report provides analysis and forecasts for a broad range of U.S. freight measures, including the Cass Freight Index, Cass Truckload Linehaul Index, and DAT spot and contract rates by trailer type for the U.S. and Canada. The service provides monthly, quarterly, and annual predictions for the TL, LTL, and intermodal markets over a two- to three-year time horizon, including capacity, volumes, and rates. The Freight Forecast provides unmatched detail on the freight rate outlook, helping companies across the supply chain plan with greater visibility and less uncertainty.

ACT Research Overview

ACT Research is recognized as the leading publisher of commercial vehicle truck, trailer, and bus industry data, market analysis and forecasts for the North America and China markets. ACT’s analytical services are used by all major North American truck and trailer manufacturers and their suppliers, as well as banking and investment companies. ACT Research is a contributor to the Blue Chip Economic Indicators and a member of the Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Panel. ACT Research executives have received peer recognition, including election to the Board of Directors of the National Association for Business Economics, appointment as Consulting Economist to the National Private Truck Council, and the Lawrence R. Klein Award for Blue Chip Economic Indicators’ Most Accurate Economic Forecast over a four-year period. ACT Research senior staff members have earned accolades including Chicago Federal Reserve Automotive Outlook Symposium Best Overall Forecast, Wall Street Journal Top Economic Outlook, and USA Today Top 10 Economic Forecasters. More information can be found at www.actresearch.net.

 

Tim Denoyer HeadshotTim Denoyer, VP & Senior Analyst

ACT Research 

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Key Items Covered Monthly In the ACT Freight Forecast:

  • ACT Class 8 Tractor Sales Forecast
  • Cass Shipment Index Forecast®
  • Cass Truckload Linehaul Index® Forecast
  • DAT Dry Van Spot Rate Forecast
  • DAT Refrigerated Spot Rate Forecast
  • DAT Flatbed Spot Rate Forecast
  • LTL Tonnage and Yield Forecast
  • Intermodal Load and Rate Forecast
  • U.S. Economic Forecast

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