Winter weather is driving significant spot activity in January, but the supply response in the past couple of months has been considerable. While lower Class 8 supply over the past several months supports a return to rate increases in 2025, more capacity additions are to come, according to the latest release of the Freight Forecast: Rate and Volume OUTLOOK report. 

“Winter weather has tightened the truckload spot market in January, and we see pre-tariff shipping supporting activity in 1H’25. The DAT load/truck ratio is jumping off the charts amid winter storms, and while rates are rising, the aggregate spot rate, net fuel, is still up just 5% y/y,” shared Tim Denoyer, ACT Research’s Vice President and Senior Analyst. 

“With supply slowing and demand growth continuing, we see room for a modest acceleration in rates in 2025. But weather and inventory building are temporary, and, of course, pull-forwards have paybacks,” Denoyer concluded. 

Freight Forecast Report Overview

The monthly 58-page ACT Freight Forecast report provides analysis and forecasts for a broad range of U.S. freight measures, including the Cass Freight Index, Cass Truckload Linehaul Index, and DAT spot and contract rates by trailer type. The service provides monthly, quarterly, and annual predictions for the TL, LTL, and intermodal markets over a two- to three-year time horizon, including capacity, volumes, and rates. The Freight Forecast provides unmatched detail on the freight rate outlook, helping companies across the supply chain plan with greater visibility and less uncertainty.

ACT Research Overview

ACT Research is recognized as the leading publisher of commercial vehicle truck, trailer, and bus industry data, market analysis and forecasts for the North America and China markets. ACT’s analytical services are used by all major North American truck and trailer manufacturers and their suppliers, as well as banking and investment companies. ACT Research is a contributor to the Blue Chip Economic Indicators and a member of the Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Panel. ACT Research executives have received peer recognition, including election to the Board of Directors of the National Association for Business Economics, appointment as Consulting Economist to the National Private Truck Council, and the Lawrence R. Klein Award for Blue Chip Economic Indicators’ Most Accurate Economic Forecast over a four-year period. ACT Research senior staff members have earned accolades including Chicago Federal Reserve Automotive Outlook Symposium Best Overall Forecast, Wall Street Journal Top Economic Outlook, and USA Today Top 10 Economic Forecasters. More information can be found at www.actresearch.net.

Tim Denoyer, VP & Senior Analyst

ACT Research