JULY 2025 DRIVING DATA
Key Observations From July's Reports
With more than 250 years of combined industry experience, ACT Research is the leader in market data, industry analysis, and forecasting for the commercial vehicle and transportation markets.
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“The publicly traded for-hire fleets, whose balance sheets we have tracked for over three decades, saw their weakest net income margins since Q1’10 in Q1’25. With freight rate growth lagging the rate of inflation last quarter, there is no expectation that margins improved much in Q2."
-Tim Denoyer, Vice President and Senior Analyst
N.A. Commercial Vehicle OUTLOOK
1. Economy - The recent passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill ACT (OBBBA) has helped resolve some policy uncertainty, particularly around taxes and infrastructure. However, trade policy remains unsettled, with shifting deadlines and changing tariff rates making it difficult for businesses and households to plan confidently for the second half of 2025 and beyond.
2. Medium Duty - With June’s preliminary 8,200 net orders for MD trucks (+/- 5.0%), the current forecast decline continues to materialize and increase pressure on the 2026 outlook.
3. Heavy Duty - Like the tractor market, fading fundamentals and uncertainty have similarly crushed demand for vocational equipment.
4. Trailer - Net order intake in May was just above 6.6k units, down more than 26% from April but about 12% higher than the subdued level of orders accepted last May.
5. Used Truck - Same dealer used Class 8 retail truck sales decreased in May. The 10% m/m slide was directionally consistent with, but larger than the expected 3% seasonal drop.
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N.A. Commercial Vehicle OUTLOOK?
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N.A. Commercial Vehicle OUTLOOK
Freight Forecast: U.S. Rate & Volume OUTLOOK
2. Aggregate DAT contract rates of $2.13 per mile, net fuel, in June, were up 1₵ from May.
3. US dry van TL spot rates, net fuel, were unchanged m/m at $1.62 per mile in June, down 7₵ from May in SA terms.
4. Class 8 tractor orders fell to just 4,700 units in June, down 34% y/y, and down from 6,695 in May.
5. Intermodal spot rates jumped in recent weeks, ending June at $1.56 per mile, including fuel.
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Freight Forecast: U.S. Rate & Volume OUTLOOK?
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Freight Forecast: U.S. Rate & Volume OUTLOOK
State of the Industry: N.A. Classes 5-8 Vehicles
Final North American Class 8 net orders totaled 9,463 units in June, down 35% y/y.
“Weak fundamentals, current regressive trade policy, and uncertainty over the ever-changing carousel of new tariff rates/deadlines impede decision making,” according to Carter Vieth, Research Analyst at ACT Research. “The pain is especially pronounced in the for-hire market, as we’ve now entered the 13th quarter of freight recession in that market segment.”
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SOI: Classes 5-8?
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SOI: Classes 5-8
State of the Industry: U.S. Used Truck Classes 3-8
The Class 8 average retail sale price gained 6.2% m/m in June. On a y/y basis, prices were up 10.4%.
“Well, it finally happened. That average retail sale price of a used Class 8 truck increased year-over-year for the first time since December 2022,” said Steve Tam, Vice President at ACT Research. He continued, “The comparisons have been getting progressively easier over the past two-and-a-half years. In addition, trucks sold in June were younger and had fewer miles on them, a trend that has been in play for some time.”
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SOI: Used Truck?
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SOI: Used Truck
State of the Industry: U.S. Trailers
Net order intake in June was nearly 15.4k units, up a phenomenal 133% from May and 144% higher than the subdued level of orders accepted last June.
“This puts the Q2 tally at 30.9k and the ytd order total at 92.0k units, 24% higher than the 74.4k bookings for the first half of 2024,” said Jennifer McNealy, Director–CV Market Research & Publications at ACT Research. “Worth noting, June’s net order jump likely is, in part, a pull-forward of activity ahead of anticipated price increases. At this point, weaker intake continues to be expected through at least mid-Q3 when the 2026 orderbooks open.”
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SOI: U.S. Trailers?
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SOI: U.S. Trailers
