May 2026 DRIVING DATA
Key Observations From May's Reports
With more than 250 years of combined industry experience, ACT Research is the leader in market data, industry analysis, and forecasting for the commercial vehicle and transportation markets.
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“ACT’s truckload fleet survey of ~40 mid- to large-sized fleets indicated the ability to find drivers in March became the hardest it had been since 2021, impacted by state actions, such as California revoking ~17k nondomicile CDLs and Indiana revoking 1.8k last month. Regulatory burdens associated with higher equipment costs in 2027 have also helped spur greater order activity. The higher cost estimates would certainly add greater incentive to dealers and large fleets to find the budget for equipment now rather than later.”
- Ken Vieth, ACT's President and Senior Analyst
N.A. Commercial Vehicle OUTLOOK
1. Economy - The conflict in the Middle East continues to exert a strong influence on the global economic outlook, with conditions remaining highly fluid and shifting between stabilization and renewed escalation. While earlier ceasefire discussions raised hopes that shipping conditions could normalize, the US blockage restricting transit through the Strait of Hormuz has materially increased the risk of a sustained disruption to global energy flows.
2. Medium Duty - April’s preliminary 14,250 net orders for MD trucks (±5.0%) were on par (seasonally adjusted) with March. Together, they are the best intake months since June 2024.
3. Class 8 - With April signifying the beginning of weaker order seasonality until 2027 orderboards open around September, it’s little surprise preliminary Class 8 order activity in April fell from March levels, to 24,800 units.
4. Trailer - Net order intake in March jumped to 18,800 units, up more than 42% from February. This brings the Q1’26 order tally to 55.4k trailers, about 5.4k units or 9% fewer than were ordered during Q1’25. For contrast, 81.2k Class 8 tractor next orders were placed in Q1.
5. Used Truck - March same dealer used Class 8 retail truck sales built on February’s momentum. Sales increased 9.8% m/m, directionally consistent with, but not quite as strong as, the expected 12% seasonal gain. March is the strongest sales month of the year, running 10% above average.
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N.A. Commercial Vehicle OUTLOOK?
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N.A. Commercial Vehicle OUTLOOK
Freight Forecast: U.S. Rate & Volume OUTLOOK
2. Aggregate DAT contract rates rose 3₵ m/m in April to $2.28 per mile, 3₵ above the seasonal pattern, and up 6.9% y/y.
3. DAT US dry van TL spot rates, net fuel, rose 24% y/y in April, accelerating from 19% in March.
4. Class 8 tractor orders pulled back to about 12,400 units in April from 20,530 in March.
5. The SA spot/contract rate spread is about the clearest signal we have that the cycle has moved from the bottoming phase to early cycle, which is finally getting contract rates to move higher.
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Freight Forecast: U.S. Rate & Volume OUTLOOK?
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Freight Forecast: U.S. Rate & Volume OUTLOOK
State of the Industry: N.A. Classes 5-8 Vehicles
Final North American Class 8 net orders totaled 24,675 units in April, down 24% m/m.
“April signifies the beginning of lower order seasonality until 2027 orderboards open in September,” according to Carter Vieth, Research Analyst at ACT Research. “Due to last April’s ‘Liberation Day’ impacting orders, y/y comparisons this month are arguably uninformative, with m/m comparisons the better metric this month. Tractor orders totaled 16,807 units, down 21% m/m on seasonality. The surge in orders the past six months boils down to improved spot and contract rates and regulatory clarity. Vocational Class 8 orders totaled 7,868 units, down 29% m/m, but given seasonality and last month’s historically strong order month, the pull back from March levels is unsurprising.”
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SOI: Classes 5-8?
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SOI: Classes 5-8
State of the Industry: U.S. Used Truck Classes 3-8
Same dealer used Class 8 retail truck sales faltered a bit but do not give cause for concern.
“The 3.3% m/m decline was directionally consistent with, but not quite as strong as, the expected 11% seasonal drop. April is the sixth strongest sales month of the year, running 2% below average,” said Steve Tam, Vice President at ACT Research. He continued, “The auction and wholesale markets were mixed in April. Auction volumes sank 52% m/m, as is normally the case for the first month of the quarter. Wholesale dealer activity edged 6.1% higher m/m. Combined, April’s total market same dealer sales volumes were 23% lower m/m.”
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SOI: Used Truck?
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SOI: Used Truck
State of the Industry: U.S. Trailers
Four months into 2026 and the US trailer industry remains mired in the same challenging environment in which it operated throughout 2025.
“Counter to cyclical expectations, net order intake in April increased from March, albeit by just 3%, logging 19.4k orders placed this month. Compared to April 2025, net orders vaulted nearly 127% over the subdued intake of 8.6k last year. Seasonally adjusted, trailer orders were 26.8k units compared to an 18.8k SA rate in March, up almost 43% m/m,” said Jennifer McNealy, Director–CV Market Research & Publications at ACT Research. “April’s cancellation rate of 1.4%, as a percentage of backlog, remained in ‘elevated’ territory, but was an improvement from the 2.3% rate recorded in March. Like last month, high cancellations were reported in most segments, meaning the situation was broad-based.”
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SOI: U.S. Trailers?
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SOI: U.S. Trailers
