September 2026 DRIVING DATA
Key Observations From September's Reports
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“With Class 8 backlogs long and the industry working through the ‘growing pains’ of ramping production, the outlook for new equipment demand is healthy but increasingly dependent on how quickly supply chains and manufacturing tiers can respond.”
- Ken Vieth, ACT's President and Senior Analyst
N.A. Commercial Vehicle OUTLOOK
1. Economy - The US economy remains resilient, but the sources of growth are narrowing while risks are broadening. Strong business investment—particularly in AI infrastructure, data centers, power generation, advanced manufacturing, and equipment—continues to offset weakness in housing and K-shaped consumer spending. August payroll growth rebounded sharply, and the ISM surveys showed continued expansion in both manufacturing and services. Nevertheless, real consumer spending was unchanged in July, income growth remains modest, and lower- and middle-income households continue to face pressure from high prices, rising borrowing costs, and limited savings.
2. Medium Duty - August’s preliminary truck net orders totaled 17.4k units. OEMs continue to sustain production, and sales are narrowing their cumulative deficit.
3. Class 8 - Class 8 preliminary orders in August totaled 16,800 units (19.6k SA), up 31% y/y on easy, tariff and carrier profitability impacted comps at this time last year. On a seasonally adjusted basis.
4. Trailer - In conversations with OEMs, suppliers, and fleets, we continue to hear trailer quotation activity has been brisk, in general. Good news for the industry, most believe this is based on fundamentals, noting the planning cycle for 2027 capex has begun.
5. Used Truck - The used Class 8 average RS price declined 4.0%m/m in July, to $60,986. Longer term, prices were down 2.0% y/y, but up 2.6% ytd. Higher average miles (+1.1% m/m) were a headwind for pricing.
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N.A. Commercial Vehicle OUTLOOK?
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N.A. Commercial Vehicle OUTLOOK
Freight Forecast: U.S. Rate & Volume OUTLOOK
2. Aggregate DAT contract rates were unchanged m/m in August at $2.52 per mile, 2¢ above the seasonal pattern, and up 18% y/y
3. DAT US dry van TL spot rates fell 18¢ m/m in August, to $2.20 per mile, net fuel. The 37% y/y gain slowed from 45% gains in June and July.
4. US Class 8 tractor orders fell to about 9,700 units in August from 12,955 in July.
5. Despite the large and sustained rise in rates, spot capacity remains tight and continues to decline.
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Freight Forecast: U.S. Rate & Volume OUTLOOK?
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Freight Forecast: U.S. Rate & Volume OUTLOOK
State of the Industry: N.A. Classes 5-8 Vehicles
Final North American Class 8 net orders totaled 16,951 units in August, up 32% year-over-year but down 34% month-over-month on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to ACT Research’s latest State of the Industry: NA Classes 5-8 report. Total Classes 5-7 orders rose 37% from a year ago, reaching 19,966 units.
Order activity in August reflected typical late-summer seasonality, as well as the impact of full 2026 backlogs and not-yet-open 2027 orderboards. “While sequential weakness in Class 8 orders is in line with normal patterns for this time of year, robust year-over-year gains highlight the continued influence of supply-side freight market constraints and regulatory clarity,” said Carter Vieth, Research Analyst at ACT Research. “With spot freight rates up sharply and fleets gaining more planning visibility around EPA 2027 and non-compliance penalties, we expect order activity to rebound as seasonality improves and new year orderboards open.”
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SOI: Classes 5-8?
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SOI: Classes 5-8
State of the Industry: U.S. Used Truck Classes 3-8
Same dealer used Class 8 retail truck sales declined 24% month-over-month in August, counter to the typical seasonal increase, while the average retail sale price increased 2.2% to $64,367. Compared to August 2025, retail sales were up 12% year-over-year and prices rose 11%.
“The notable drop in used Class 8 sales this month is not necessarily a reflection of weaker demand, but more likely a result of tightening inventory,” said Steve Tam, Vice President at ACT Research. “Dealers across the country are reporting that used truck inventory is increasingly hard to come by, and our analysis of multiple advertising sources confirms that available units are down meaningfully from earlier in the year. With new truck sales also running below last year’s pace, fewer trades are making their way into the used market, supporting higher prices despite lower sales volumes.”
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SOI: Used Truck?
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SOI: Used Truck
State of the Industry: U.S. Trailers
Preliminary net trailer orders in August were 24,200 units, up about 8,600 units from July, a 55% month-to-month increase, and more than 16,000 units higher than August 2025. While appearing meteoric, it’s important to remember that the 193% y/y gain is against 2025’s very tepid environment. Seasonal adjustment (SA) at this point in the annual order cycle takes the month’s volume to 33,700 units, the second best seasonally adjusted order volume in the past 43 months. This preliminary order estimate is typically within ±5% of the final order tally.
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SOI: U.S. Trailers?
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SOI: U.S. Trailers
