OCTOBER 2026 DRIVING DATA
Key Observations From October's Reports
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“The recent decline in Class 8 orders in part reflects not only these headwinds, but materially higher backlogs now than at this time last year, and the impact of uncertainty around the final EPA’27 rule. Rather than a sudden drop in underlying demand, in the case of Class 8, fleets weigh their options in a shifting market.”
- Ken Vieth, ACT's President and Senior Analyst
N.A. Commercial Vehicle OUTLOOK
1. Economy - The US economy continues to confront shocks that would normally threaten an expansion. Tariffs, elevated energy prices, and rising Treasury yields are constraining household purchasing power and raising business costs. Yet, underlying private domestic demand reached its strongest growth rate in more than three years in Q2’26. AI investment remains a key source of economic strength, offsetting continued weakness in the housing sector. As of 2026, manufacturing has become a growing source of economic resilience, with the ISM Manufacturing Index marking its ninth consecutive month of expansion in September.
2. Medium Duty - September’s preliminary truck net orders totaled 17,200 units. Aggressive 2026 builds offset the expectation for these above-trend orders to boost the 2027 outlook.
3. Class 8 - Class 8 preliminary orders in September totaled 18,700 units (16.6k SA), down 9.5% y/y, reflecting said regulatory uncertainty amongst fleets rather than a sudden drop in equipment demand.
4. Trailer - While we are hearing that the new suppliers have been able to keep up with last year’s lackluster demand levels, there is worry that they may not be able to match demand during the upcoming ramp.
5. Used Truck - August same dealer used Class 8 retail truck sales fell meaningfully compared to July (-24%), but held steady longer-term.
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N.A. Commercial Vehicle OUTLOOK?
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N.A. Commercial Vehicle OUTLOOK
Freight Forecast: U.S. Rate & Volume OUTLOOK
1. The shipments component of the Cass Freight Index rose 2.3% m/m and 1.9% y/y in September, the second straight y/y gain after a 3.5-year downturn by this measure, the longest on record.
2. Aggregate DAT contract rates—combining dry van, reefer, and flatbed—were down 1¢ m/m in September to $2.52 per mile, in line with the seasonal pattern, and up 18% y/y.
3. DAT US dry van TL spot rates fell 3¢ m/m in September, net fuel, up 33% y/y.
4. US Class 8 tractor orders rose to about 10,300 units in September from 8,580 in August.
5. In the first half of October, dry van spot rates, net fuel (SA), regained essentially all of the ground lost to higher diesel costs over the past few months.
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Freight Forecast: U.S. Rate & Volume OUTLOOK?
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Freight Forecast: U.S. Rate & Volume OUTLOOK
State of the Industry: N.A. Classes 5-8 Vehicles
Final North American Class 8 net orders totaled 19,172 units in September, down 7% year-over-year and 15% month-over-month on a seasonally adjusted basis. Total Classes 5-7 orders rose 27% year-over-year to 20,297 units, reflecting continued strength in medium-duty demand despite broader market headwinds.
Order softness in the Class 8 segment this month appears closely tied to ongoing regulatory uncertainty, with fleets cautious amid the lack of finalized EPA 2027 engine rules and associated penalties. While September typically marks the start of the annual “order season,” it appears not all OEMs have fully opened 2027 order boards, further contributing to subdued activity. In contrast, medium-duty orders remain robust, likely supported by dealer inventory stocking ahead of anticipated 2027 regulatory changes and higher prices.
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SOI: Classes 5-8?
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SOI: Classes 5-8
State of the Industry: U.S. Used Truck Classes 3-8
Same dealer used Class 8 retail truck sales slipped 5.7% month-over-month in September, following a notable decline in August, while the average retail sale price decreased 1.9% to $64,007. Despite the near-term pullback, retail sales remained 6% higher year-over-year and average prices were up 12% from September 2025.
“The September decline in used Class 8 retail sales was directionally consistent with, but greater than, the typical seasonal drop,” said Steve Tam, Vice President at ACT Research. “While auction volumes rebounded in the last month of the quarter, retail and wholesale channels faced continued headwinds. Higher average miles and an uptick in vehicle age contributed to downward pressure on pricing, but the market’s longer-term trajectory remains positive, reflecting the resilience of carriers navigating a challenging operating environment.”
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SOI: Used Truck?
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SOI: Used Truck
State of the Industry: U.S. Trailers
Net trailer orders in September soared to 42,700 units, marking a dramatic turnaround from the subdued order activity seen a year ago and driving a 29% month-over-month increase in industry backlogs. The backlog-to-build (BL/BU) ratio jumped 90bps m/m to 5.9 months, signaling a notable commitment of production slots well into 2027.
“What a difference a year makes,” said Jennifer McNealy, Director–CV Market Research & Publications at ACT Research. “Last year, the trailer market was in ‘stay afloat’ mode, but today, we’re seeing a perfect storm of order activity. Customers are moving quickly to get ahead of tariff-driven price increases, carriers are enjoying improved profitability, and pent-up replacement demand is being addressed. With a tighter driver supply and supportive freight rates, fleets now have both the willingness and ability to purchase equipment, leading to a strengthening demand environment where backlogs are rising at a pace not seen since the last upcycle.”
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SOI: U.S. Trailers?
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SOI: U.S. Trailers
