August 2026 DRIVING DATA
Key Observations From August's Reports
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“Underlining the robustness of the current demand environment has been the backlog boosting surge in tractor orders that began last December. Year-ago August tractor order backlogs fell to a nearly 13-year low. In our latest industry data, June-ending order backlogs were more than double year-ago levels.”
- Ken Vieth, ACT's President and Senior Analyst
N.A. Commercial Vehicle OUTLOOK
1. Economy - The US economy continues to outperform expectations, although the composition of growth is becoming increasingly unbalanced. Business investment remains the primary engine of growth, supported by strong spending on artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure, data centers, advanced manufacturing, and energy projects. At the same time, productivity growth has significantly improved over the past several years. However, it remains difficult to determine how much the rise in productivity reflects early AI adoption versus the broader digital transformation and efficiency gains that accelerated following the pandemic.
2. Medium Duty - July’s preliminary truck net orders totaled 16,250 units. As has been the case, the OEMs are responding by pushing build higher, and sales are starting to follow suit.
3. Class 8 - Demand for new equipment remains strong, buoyed by meaningfully improved freight rates. Initially driven by severe contractions in the driver supply, the Montgomery decision, stricter ELD/HOS rule enforcement, and new carrier registration rules have added to supply constraints and rate momentum.
4. Trailer - After arriving counter to cyclical expectations for the past three months, net order intake in June slowed in seasonal fashion. Net trailer orders in June were 13,500 units, down about 7,300 units from May, a 35% month-to-month decrease. Compared to June 2025, this year’s intake was 1,300 units lower, nearly a 9% decrease. Seasonal adjustment (SA) at this point in the annual order cycle takes the month’s volume to 19,200 units.
5. Used Truck - The used Class 8 average retail sale price advanced 2.0% m/m in June, to $61,751. Longer term, prices were 1.5% higher y/y and up 2.2% ytd. Higher average miles (+3.1% m/m) were inconsistent with pricing.
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N.A. Commercial Vehicle OUTLOOK?
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N.A. Commercial Vehicle OUTLOOK
Freight Forecast: U.S. Rate & Volume OUTLOOK
2. Aggregate DAT contract rates rose 8¢ m/m in July to $2.50 per mile, 6¢ above the seasonal pattern, and up 17% y/y.
3. DAT US dry van TL spot rates, net fuel, rose 47% y/y in July, to $2.41 per mile, net fuel, after a 45% gain in June.
4. Class 8 tractor orders fell to about 12,000 units in July from 18,444 in June.
5. US dealers sold 13,827 new Class 8 tractors in June, down 3% y/y.
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Freight Forecast: U.S. Rate & Volume OUTLOOK?
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Freight Forecast: U.S. Rate & Volume OUTLOOK
State of the Industry: N.A. Classes 5-8 Vehicles
Final North American Class 8 net orders totaled 22,562 units in July, up 71% year-over-year but down 29% month-over-month on a seasonally adjusted basis. The sequential decline reflects not a drop in demand, but the impact of full 2026 build slots, with remaining production capacity for the year oversubscribed by 35,000 units.
“Robust demand for new equipment continues, supported by improved spot and contract rates, as evidenced by the recent earnings strength among publicly traded truckload carriers,” said Carter Vieth, Research Analyst at ACT Research. “While ongoing EPA uncertainty could influence the coming order ramp, carrier profitability is rising quickly, and freight conditions are improving across the board.”
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SOI: Classes 5-8?
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SOI: Classes 5-8
State of the Industry: U.S. Used Truck Classes 3-8
August same dealer used Class 8 retail truck sales declined 2.5% month-over-month in July, a steeper drop than the expected seasonal dip. Despite the near-term pullback, retail sales remained 45% higher compared to July 2025, continuing a trend of robust year-over-year growth. The average retail sale price for used Class 8 trucks slipped 4.0% from June, settling at $60,986.
“The July slowdown in used Class 8 retail sales was directionally consistent with seasonal expectations, but the magnitude was greater than usual,” said Steve Tam, Vice President at ACT Research. “Auction and wholesale channels also softened, contributing to an overall decrease in total market volumes. While pricing retreated in the near term, year-to-date sales and values continue to show resilience, even as the market navigates ongoing regulatory and OEM product uncertainties.”
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SOI: Used Truck?
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SOI: Used Truck
State of the Industry: U.S. Trailers
Net trailer orders in July reached nearly 15,700 units, representing a 16% sequential increase and a 94% jump over July 2025’s levels. Despite July typically being the weakest order month of the annual cycle, order activity outperformed seasonal expectations, while the industry’s backlog remained virtually unchanged from June and grew more than 13% year-over-year.
“Trailer quotation activity has been brisk, with many in the industry noting that orderboards for 2027 are opening earlier than usual, even as pricing for next year remains unsettled due to tariff-related uncertainty,” said Jennifer McNealy, Director–CV Market Research & Publications at ACT Research. “With 2027 orderboards opening earlier than normal, net orders continue to surprise to the upside, and while build rates have slowed in line with seasonality, the backlog-to-build ratio has climbed to the 5.0-month threshold, committing the industry into the fourth quarter. Cancellations, meanwhile, have moderated to within the acceptable range, indicating a more stable environment compared to the volatility seen over the past two years.”
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SOI: U.S. Trailers?
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SOI: U.S. Trailers
