APRIL 2025 DRIVING DATA
Key Observations From April's Reports
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In December, the six-month Class 8 orders average ran at a 321,000-unit SAAR. In Q1’25, orders were booked at a 224,000 SAAR. While Class 8 orders ended 2024 on a reasonably strong note, the same could not be said for trailers or MD vehicles.”
-Kenny Vieth, President and Senior Analyst
N.A. Commercial Vehicle OUTLOOK
1. Economy - Overall, the US economy faces a period of extreme uncertainty surrounding tariffs. On April 9, amid financial market turmoil about concerns that the trade war would drag the global economy into recession, President Trump authorized a 90-day pause on the more extreme reciprocal tariffs.
2. Medium Duty - At a preliminary 13,600 net orders for MD trucks (+/- 5.0%), the air continued to leak slowly from the demand balloon in March.
3. Heavy Duty - Whether the slowdown in orders is from moderating economic activity, private fleets’ pausing expansion, or as a response to trade and policy uncertainty is difficult to surmise and remains an open question.
4. Trailer - OEMs who responded to our monthly survey at the end of February shared that conditions regarding supply, general business, and demand were on par with January, as well as when set against February 2024. That said, on par is not necessarily good.
5. Used Truck - Same dealer used Class 8 retail truck sales ticked slightly higher in February. The 0.9% m/m increase was directionally consistent with, but not as strong as, the expected 5% seasonal advance.
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N.A. Commercial Vehicle OUTLOOK?
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N.A. Commercial Vehicle OUTLOOK
Freight Forecast: U.S. Rate & Volume OUTLOOK
1. The shipments component of the Cass Freight Index® was unchanged in March m/m.
2. Aggregate DAT contract rates of $2.16 per mile, net fuel, in February, were down 1₵ from January.
3. US dry van TL spot rates, net fuel, fell 2₵ m/m to $1.62 per mile in March, also down 2₵ in SA terms.
4. The Driver Availability Index fell 2.1 points to 51.0 in March, from 52.3 in February. While still improving, driver availability has slowed the past 17 months.
5. The Supply-Demand Balance grew at a slower rate in February, at 51.1 (SA), from 59.1 in January, as freight volumes decreased, and capacity contracted at a slower rate.
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Freight Forecast: U.S. Rate & Volume OUTLOOK?
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Freight Forecast: U.S. Rate & Volume OUTLOOK
State of the Industry: N.A. Classes 5-8 Vehicles
Final North American Class 8 net orders totaled 16.5k units in March, down 5.9% y/y.
“While uncertainty and a weak seasonal period have made parsing the tea leaves more challenging, cancellations at a 20-month high may indicate customers are pulling back on orders given the increasingly pessimistic outlook,” according to Carter Vieth, Research Analyst at ACT Research. “Tractor orders of 12.2k units this month were essentially flat y/y, up 0.9%. Vocational truck orders decreased 21% y/y, totaling 4.2k units.”
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SOI: Classes 5-8?
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SOI: Classes 5-8
State of the Industry: U.S. Used Truck Classes 3-8
The Class 8 average retail sale price rose by its largest percentage since March 2022, gaining 5.6% m/m in March.
“On a y/y basis, prices were 6.0% lower, while falling 7.7% ytd,” said Steve Tam, Vice President at ACT Research. “Besides the usual factors that influence used truck prices, such as mileage, age, and condition, a number of other considerations are likely affecting recent pricing changes.”
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SOI: Used Truck?
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SOI: Used Truck
State of the Industry: U.S. Trailers
March net trailer orders, just below 21.2k units, were up nearly 21% from February and 63% above the lackluster level accepted in March 2024.
“March’s net order intake puts the Q1’25 tally at 62.7k units, 29% higher than Q1’24 bookings,” said Jennifer McNealy, Director–CV Market Research & Publications at ACT Research. “While good news, we caution that the industry’s annual period of seasonally stronger order months is ending, and weaker intake months are expected as we move into the late spring/summer, amid tariff uncertainty that is likely extending the ‘pause’ on ordering decisions.”
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SOI: U.S. Trailers?
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SOI: U.S. Trailers
