JUNE 2025 DRIVING DATA
Key Observations From June's Reports
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"The ‘major questions doctrine’ is a legal argument the Supreme Court used to limit Biden’s authority on student loans and climate, ruling that federal agencies can’t make sweeping changes without clear congressional authorization. It was also cited by the US Court of International Trade when it ruled the IEEPA reciprocal and fentanyl tariffs unlawful in late May. These tariffs continue as the ruling is stayed.”
-Tim Denoyer, Vice President and Senior Analyst
N.A. Commercial Vehicle OUTLOOK
1. Economy - Trade uncertainty grows as fiscal challenges mount. After a short period of relative calm, a wave of policy development has reignited uncertainty across trade, tax, and credit markets. A federal court ruling has disputed the administration’s tariff authority, new protectionist threats are escalating tensions with major trade partners, a sweeping tax package inches forward in Congress, and the US credit rating has taken another hit.
2. Medium Duty - At a preliminary 8,300 net orders for MD trucks (+/- 5.0%), the current forecast decline is materializing.
3. Heavy Duty - Government policy decisions and uncertainty have been the drivers of the newfound weakness in vocational market demand.
4. Trailer - Net order intake in April was just below 9.4k units, down more than 57% from March and about 32% lower than the subdued level of orders accepted in April 2024. This puts the ytd order tally at 70.5k units, 13% higher than the 62.2k bookings for the first four months of 2024.
5. Used Truck - Same dealer used Class 8 retail truck sales decreased in April. The 3.3% m/m slide was directly consistent with, but not as large as, the expected nearly 11% seasonal pullback indicated by history.
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N.A. Commercial Vehicle OUTLOOK?
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N.A. Commercial Vehicle OUTLOOK
Freight Forecast: U.S. Rate & Volume OUTLOOK
1. The shipments component of the Cass Freight Index® was down 0.4% m/m in May.
2. Aggregate DAT contract rates of $2.15 per mile, net fuel, in May, were up 1₵ from April.
3. US dry van TL spot rates, net fuel, rose 5₵ m/m to $1.62 per mile in May, up 3₵ in SA terms.
4. The long-distance LTL Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 5.4% y/y in May, up from 4.9% y/y in April.
5. Intermodal spot rates were unchanged m/m in May at $1.47 per mile, including fuel, in line with the normal seasonal pattern and near the cycle low.
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Freight Forecast: U.S. Rate & Volume OUTLOOK?
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Freight Forecast: U.S. Rate & Volume OUTLOOK
State of the Industry: N.A. Classes 5-8 Vehicles
Final North American Class 8 net orders totaled 13k units in May, down 45% y/y.
“Entering the weakest period seasonally for new business, Class 8 orders continued to decline in May, as weak fundamentals and broad uncertainty pressure demand,” according to Carter Vieth, Research Analyst at ACT Research. “Unsurprisingly, tractor orders fell 43% y/y, to 8,439 units. Vocational truck orders fell 48% y/y, totaling 4,584 units,” he continued.
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SOI: Classes 5-8?
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SOI: Classes 5-8
State of the Industry: U.S. Used Truck Classes 3-8
The Class 8 average retail sale price slipped 2.3% lower m/m in May. On a year-over-year basis, prices were down 3.1%.
“Compared to April, miles increased 2.8% m/m, contributing to weaker pricing,” said Steve Tam, Vice President at ACT Research. He continued, “May is usually the third weakest sales month of the year, running nearly 5% below average. Combined, total used sales lagged the first five months of last year by 6.7%, leaving our outlook for 2025 unchanged.”
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SOI: Used Truck?
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SOI: Used Truck
State of the Industry: U.S. Trailers
Net order intake in May was just above 6.6k units, down more than 26% from April but about 12% higher than the subdued level of orders accepted last May.
“This puts the year-to-date order tally at 76.6k units, 13% higher than the 68.1k bookings for the first five months of 2024,” said Jennifer McNealy, Director–CV Market Research & Publications at ACT Research. “Worth noting, the industry’s annual period of seasonally stronger order months is in the rearview mirror, and weaker intake is expected from now through mid-Q3.”
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SOI: U.S. Trailers?
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SOI: U.S. Trailers
