AUGUST 2025 DRIVING DATA
Key Observations From August's Reports
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“This is the time of the year that heavy truck orders are weak. That seasonal weakness has been compounded by the aftershocks of April’s tariff and policy announcements, which continue to reverberate. Policy uncertainty coupled with still weak for-hire rate and profitability fundamentals, have exacerbated that seasonal order weakness.”
- Ken Vieth, ACT's President and Senior Analyst
N.A. Commercial Vehicle OUTLOOK
1. Economy - Stagflationary risks are emerging as tariffs begin to show more clearly in the economic data, with inflation edging higher even as growth slows and the labor market weakens. The economic impact of higher tariffs is increasingly evident in price, GDP, and now employment data, while core sectors-housing, manufacturing, and services-are losing momentum.
2. Medium Duty - July’s preliminary 8,350 net orders for MD trucks (+/- 5.0%) provide no reason for optimism and have resulted in a reduction of the 2026 forecast.
3. Heavy Duty - Summer marks the weakest season for orders, but the aftershocks following April 9 continue to reverberate and, coupled with still weak for-hire fundamentals, have greatly subdued order activity.
4. Trailer - Net order intake in June was nearly 15.4k units, up a phenomenal 133% from May and 144% higher than the subdued level of orders accepted last June.
5. Used Truck - Same dealer used Class 8 retail truck sales decreased again in June. The 6.4% m/m drop was counter to the expected 3% seasonal increase the industry typically experiences.
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N.A. Commercial Vehicle OUTLOOK?
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N.A. Commercial Vehicle OUTLOOK
Freight Forecast: U.S. Rate & Volume OUTLOOK
2. Aggregate DAT contract rates of $2.15 per mile, net fuels, in July, were up 1₵ from June, 1₵ below the seasonal pattern, and down 1.1% y/y.
3. DAT US dry van TL spot rates, net fuel, were unchanged both m/m and y/y at $1.63 per mile in July.
4. Class 8 tractor orders rebounded to 6,600 units in July from 4,727 in June.
5. Intermodal spot rates have settled down after a brief jump in late June, but were still up 2.2% y/y.
.png?width=624&height=413&name=Cass%20Freight%20Index%20-%20Shipment%20(July%202025).png "Cass Freight Index - Shipment (July 2025)")
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Freight Forecast: U.S. Rate & Volume OUTLOOK?
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Freight Forecast: U.S. Rate & Volume OUTLOOK
State of the Industry: N.A. Classes 5-8 Vehicles
Final North American Class 8 net orders totaled 13,172 units in July, down 2.1% y/y.
“July marks the seventh consecutive month of y/y Class 8 order declines,” according to Carter Vieth, Research Analyst at ACT Research. “Tractor orders increased 6.6% y/y to 8,314 units, but considering July is the weakest month for orders, delayed planning due to tariffs seems responsible for the modest bump in July tractor orders as weak fundamentals remain in place.”
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SOI: Classes 5-8?
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SOI: Classes 5-8
State of the Industry: U.S. Used Truck Classes 3-8
The Class 8 average retail sale price gained 2.3% m/m in July. On a y/y basis, prices were up 12%.
“The used truck market finds itself in an interesting predicament these days. On the new truck side of the business, the industry has produced and consumed trucks at above replacement rates for seven years running. The net result is excess capacity,” said Steve Tam, Vice President at ACT Research. He continued, “Faced with declining demand, the OEMs have responded by laying off workers and reducing output. But without a meaningful increase in freight, it will take time to consume the unused capacity. Fewer new trucks rolling off the assembly line means reduced trade activity, somewhat alleviating concerns about excess used truck inventory. This seems to be helping used truck valuations.”
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SOI: Used Truck?
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SOI: Used Truck
State of the Industry: U.S. Trailers
Net order intake in July was 8.8k units, 43% lower than June’s high-side surprise, but more than 19% higher than the subdued level of orders accepted last July.
“This puts the year-to-date order tally at 100.7k units, 23% higher than the 81.8k bookings for the first seven months of 2024,” said Jennifer McNealy, Director–CV Market Research & Publications at ACT Research. “At this point, weaker intake continues to be expected through at least mid-Q3 when more of the industry's 2026 order books open.”
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SOI: U.S. Trailers?
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SOI: U.S. Trailers
