VOLUME INDEX:
The Volume Index fell 6.1 points in February to 48.1, seasonally adjusted (SA), from 54.2 in January. Trade policy uncertainty poses a risk to a weakening US economy, and early data for 2025 show some signs of slowing growth. Retail sales were weaker than expected in January and goods inflation rose 3.1% y/y in January on tariff expectations. As a result of increased uncertainty, consumer confidence in March fell to its lowest levels in nearly three years.
After over two years of private fleet growth, for-hire carriers are having to compete more and more with private fleets for their share of the freight pie. Private capacity additions are slowing and could slow further if threatened tariffs take effect, which could partly offset the risk to for-hire demand from tariffs.
PRICING INDEX:
The Pricing Index was virtually unchanged, down 0.6 points m/m in February to 50.1 (SA), from 50.7 in January. After weather-related head fakes in January, pricing progress remains slow and ongoing. While improved, rates are not far off the bottom.
US Class 8 tractor sales fell below replacement levels in January and February, marking the first sign of capacity contraction in nearly three years, a necessary first step for rates to improve, but after a 20% increase in the Class 8 tractor fleet the past four years, pricing progress will likely remain soft in the near term.
CAPACITY INDEX: 
The Capacity Index increased 2.0 points m/m to 47.1 in February, from 45.1 in January. Going on three years of weak profitability, this month is a continuation of what we’ve been seeing: for-hire carriers are continuing to shrink. Given the current volume and rate environment, we would anticipate for-hire capacity addition decisions to remain at or below replacement levels, leaving the index at or around a flat 50 level.
While improvements in freight demand and rates don’t’ yet call for for-hire capacity expansion, the will-they-won’t-they nature of the trade war may lead to further capex belt tightening.
DRIVERS:
The Driver Availability Index eased 0.9 points to 53.1 in February, from 52.3 in January. Over the past 16 months, the index has moved in a narrow range of “easy” readings.
February marks the 33rd consecutive month the index has been at or above 50. A large factor behind the sustained, elevated for-hire driver availability is likely the significant increase in wages during the pandemic. Struggling owner-operators turning in their operating authorities have also provided a steady supply of experienced drivers for fleets.
A tighter driver market—which could come from the long cyclical lag from lower rates, the baby boomer retirement wave, or mass deportations—would press truckload rates higher.
FLEET PURCHASE INTENTIONS: 
Fleet purchase intentions fell 10 percentage points (pps) m/m, with only 35% of respondents planning on buying new equipment in the next three months, sharply below the 56% historical average for February. Tariff uncertainty, which has thrown a wrench into business planning, is likely one factor dampening future equipment purchases, but three years of constrained profitability is the biggest factor for the weak buying sentiment. Amongst the publicly traded TL carriers, net profits in 2024 were at their lowest levels since 2010.
SUPPLY-DEMAND BALANCE:
The Supply-Demand Balance grew at a slower rate in February, at 51.1 (SA), from 59.1 in January, as freight volumes decreased, and capacity contracted at a slower rate.
Private fleet expansion, which is not captured in this indicator, has resulted in a longer period with the market close to balance than in past cycles. Goods inflation and a weakening consumer outlook due to tariffs may limit freight volume growth in the coming months. This situation could lead to weaker manufacturing/industrial output if enacted.
While capacity is beginning to come out of the supply side, an unnecessary trade war risks impacting demand.
PRODUCTIVITY INDEX: 
(miles/tractor)
Fleet productivity grew 1.2 points more slowly m/m to 52.2 (SA) in February as volumes fell and capacity increased m/m. In general, overcapacity has challenged productivity in the for-hire market, but productivity should improve with volume increases and slowing overall capacity growth.