VOLUME INDEX:
The Volume Index fell 0.5 points m/m to 64.8 (SA) in July, the sixth straight month above 60. Demand was very strong in July, but this volume strength for fleets is due in no small part to tighter supply at the industry level. As emphasized by the sharp decline in the Driver Availability Index, it has so far been largely a supply-driven recovery. Industrial demand has improved with the data center trend, and while consumer demand remains soft, durable goods demand is strong and inventory restocking is likely in the coming months.
For-hire volumes should continue to benefit from growing capacity constraints even in a broadly soft demand environment. Vocational markets and flatbed are among the strongest areas for demand.
FREIGHT RATES INDEX:
The Freight Rate Index jumped to the third highest in our survey’s history at 77.0 in July (SA), just behind the 79.7 reading in May and 77.6 in July 2021. Market balance has swung decisively in favor of fleets this year, and capacity continues to tighten with enforcement of new driver regulations ongoing after about 18 months of underinvestment in equipment. These factors have added extraordinary momentum to the rate cycle and will not be corrected soon. Especially for shippers trying to grow, capacity is a major challenge this year. Tightening market dynamics are likely to continue to drive rates higher
CAPACITY INDEX: 
The Capacity Index increased 1.6 points m/m, to 56.2 in July from 54.6 in June, the first readings well above the neutral 50 level in three years. Freight rates are signaling for more capacity, and interestingly, fleets are responding with expansion. This is no small challenge with driver availability declining, and not likely true across the industry. The quality fleets in ACT’s survey likely have stronger balance sheets than most, and owner-operators are not reflected in our survey. So, industry capacity can continue to contract even, particularly from a driver perspective in the current environment, while medium and large for-hire fleets respond with growth.
DRIVER AVAILABILITY INDEX:
The driver shortage moderated for a third consecutive month in July, as our Driver Availability Index rose to 38.5 in July, from 34.4 in June. A shift to a tighter market was a long time coming, but the raft of new rules and regulations from both the FMCSA (CDLs and ELDs) and the Supreme Court (broker liability) appear to be the proximate causes. Anywhere below the eight-year average of 46 constitutes a shortage, in our view. After an initial plunge as FMCSA purged nondomiciled CDLs in early 2026, driver availability has recovered since. The struggle between ongoing enforcement removing more capacity and new entrants suggest it will be hard to find drivers for a while.
FLEET PURCHASE INTENTIONS INDEX: 
Fleet purchasing intentions decreased m/m to 40% in July from 47% in June, with fewer fleets saying they plan to buy equipment in the next three months, and remained well below July’s historical average of 56% of respondents planning on buying equipment. Last month’s EPA announcement may have impacted buying, as fleets and OEMs await on the finalized EPA’27 regulations and the verdict on non-conformance penalties and engine credit usage. Additionally, with margins, at least amongst the publicly traded TL carriers just starting to trend up in Q2, and with myriad inflationary pressures in the pipeline, Capex budgets may still be constrained.
As contract rates and fleet profitability continue to improve in the second half of the year, and as we near the introduction of new engines, we expect equipment purchasing intentions to rise accordingly.
SUPPLY-DEMAND BALANCE INDEX:
The Supply-Demand Balance rebalanced somewhat in July, dropping to 58.6, down from 60.7 (SA) in June, as volumes improved but fleets added more capacity. An interesting feature of this cycle is the success of large for-hire fleets in bringing capacity up to meet demand. In our view, this reduces the risk of this year’s upward rate volatility continuing to the same degree. Despite a sluggish goods economy, the capacity correction is creating forhire trucking demand, and a retail inventory restock has likely begun. While enforcement of new regulations continues, driver availability remains tight, but is improving at the margin as record driver pay packages are announced.
PRODUCTIVITY INDEX: 
(miles/tractor)
Fleet productivity decreased 3.1 points m/m, to 60.1 (SA) in July from 56.3 in June as capacity increased and volumes declined slightly m/m.