VOLUME INDEX:
The Volume Index increased 0.8 points to 67.7 seasonally adjusted (SA) in May from 66.9 in April, a five-and-half-year high. As emphasized by the sharp decline in in the Driver Availability Index since January, and the slowly increasing Capacity Index, this is largely a supply-driven recovery. Low inventory levels make a case for a restock this year, though inflation continues to weigh on consumers, and still-elevated interest rates are holding back key freight generators such as housing.
For-hire volumes should continue to benefit from growing capacity constraints even in a soft demand environment. Vocational markets and flatbed are among the strongest areas for demand, supporting the data center buildout.
FREIGHT RATES INDEX:
The Freight Rate Index rose 13.1 points m/m to 79.7 in May (SA), a new record in the 17-year survey history. Capacity constraints, particularly for drivers, have added major momentum to the rate cycle. The broadening enforcement of new FMCSA regulations, ageing boomer demographics, new MOTUS registration rules to clamp down on “chameleon carriers,” and the recent SCOTUS decision increasing broker liability are all tightening capacity, supporting higher for-hire demand even in a soft goods economy. May’s pricing index was also the beneficiary of Roadcheck impacts, as both spot and contract rates accelerated.
CAPACITY INDEX: 
The Capacity Index increased 3.2 points m/m, to 53.5 in May from 50.2 in April, a three-year high. Rising freight rates are signaling capacity to expand again, but this is no small feat given the long trough for-hire carriers are climbing out of and driver availability declining. Increased truck orders since the news that EPA’27 will still happen, partially, is driving some purchasing, but US tractor sales have remained below replacement on limited capex budgets. Prebuying will be largely limited in 2H’26 to large, well-capitalized fleets, but the tractor population overall is expected to decline in 2026.
Though the freight cycle is beginning to kick into gear, it will likely be hard for fleets to expand capacity amid a more aggressive FMCSA targeting nondomicile drivers and a nationwide anti-immigration crackdown. Higher rates make the case for higher driver pay, but that is easier said than done.
DRIVER AVAILABILITY INDEX:
The Driver Availability Index increased to 32.6 in May from 31.5 in April. The sharp drop in recent months follows an expanded scope of new FMCSA regulations including nondomiciled CDLs, reducing ELD and registration fraud, and closing Potemkin driver schools. The new nondomiciled rules took effect in mid-March, and the Driver Availability Index hit a five-year low in April. Driver availability is a key component of capacity, and additional scarcity is supportive of higher rates.
The medium and large fleets in our survey reported a steady and loose driver supply through the long freight downturn, and their driver availability should reflect the net effects of new FMCSA rules.
FLEET PURCHASE INTENTIONS INDEX: 
Fleet purchasing intentions rose 5.0 percentage points (pps) m/m, with 47% of fleets saying they plan to buy equipment in the next three months, but the index remained below May’s historical average of 50% of respondents planning on buying equipment. With spot rates at a four-year high following the most recent Roadcheck, and having shrugged off elevated fuel costs, confidence in the cycle upturn is growing. Fleet equipment additions are likely to increase in the second half of the year, as profitability improves and we near the start of EPA’27 low-NOx regulations. Given the long trough fleets are rising out of, beaten up fleet finances will be the limiting factor for at least the rest of this year.
SUPPLY-DEMAND BALANCE INDEX:
The Supply-Demand Balance firmly remained in tight territory in May, but eased slightly m/m at 64.2, from 66.7 (SA) in April, as capacity increases outpaced volume improvement. Capacity, at a broad level, continues to exit the market even with growing prebuy demand ahead of EPA’27, as new FMCSA rules remove drivers. Volumes continue to signal strengthening for-hire volumes. While this seems inconsistent with a supply-driven cycle, improving volumes at the quality medium and large fleets in our survey sample are more likely the result of reduced industry capacity than goods demand trends. While the economy looks more likely than not to keep chugging along, associated K-shaped risks may still lead to an uneven demand environment. But supply is likely to remain tight.
PRODUCTIVITY INDEX: 
(miles/tractor)
Fleet productivity decreased 9.3 points m/m, to 56.3 (SA) in May from 65.6 in April, as capacity increased and outpaced volume improvement. The sharp decline in May also reflected disruptions caused by the annual Roadcheck.