VOLUME INDEX:
The Volume Index rose 6.0 points to 66.9 seasonally adjusted (SA) in April, a new cycle high. In four of the past five months, the Volume Index has been above 60, a level not reached since December 2021. As emphasized by the accelerating decline in the Driver Availability Index and the more chronic decline in the Capacity Index, this is largely a supply-driven recovery. Lower tariffs may be helping, but despite the May 7 ruling that the latest 10% §122 tariffs are unlawful, shippers may still delay restocking lean inventories until after the July 24 expiration to avoid the legal hassle. Even as the outlook for goods demand worsens on spiking fuel prices, for-hire demand is supported by reduced supply.
For-hire volumes should continue to benefit from growing capacity constraints even in a soft demand environment. Ripple effects due to the Iran war may impact volumes, but given the fluid nature of the conflict, clarity remains elusive.
FREIGHT RATES INDEX:
The Freight Rates Index rose 1.1 points m/m to 66.6 in April (SA), the third straight month above 60, a level not seen since April 2022. Multiple capacity constraints, including drivers, weather, and equipment, have added momentum to the rate cycle. Most recently, the spike in diesel costs and broadening enforcement of new FMCSA regulations are tightening capacity, supporting for-hire demand even in a soft goods economy. Tightening market dynamics are continuing to drive rates higher, with spot rate increases since late 2025 now leading to contract rate increases.
CAPACITY INDEX: 
The Capacity Index increased 1.9 points m/m, to 50.2 in April from 48.1 in March, the first time above the neutral 50 level in a year and just the third increase in the past three years. Rising freight rates are signaling capacity to expand again, but this is no small challenge, with equipment budgets constrained and driver availability declining. Weather also had an effect in January and February, aiding the improvement. Increased truck orders since the recent news that EPA’27 will still happen, partially, is driving some purchasing, but prebuying will be largely limited to 2H’26, though noncompliance penalties could extend prebuying into early 2027.
Though the freight cycle is beginning to kick into gear, it will likely be hard for fleets to expand capacity amid a more aggressive FMCSA targeting nondomicile drivers and a nationwide anti-immigration crackdown.
DRIVER AVAILABILITY INDEX:
The Driver Availability Index decreased 5.7 points to 30.4 in April from 36.1 in March, the lowest level since September 2021. The sharp drop in recent months shows the market has moved into a new driver shortage, due in no small part to the immigration crackdown and tighter driver regulations. The new nondomicile CDL rules took effect in mid-March, but effects of several rule changes are weighing on the market. Driver availability is a key component of capacity in the market, and additional scarcity seems likely, supporting higher freight rates.
The medium and large fleets in our survey reported a steady and loose driver supply through the long freight downturn, and their driver availability should reflect the net effects of new FMCSA rules.
FLEET PURCHASE INTENTIONS INDEX: 
Fleet purchasing intentions rose 7.1pps m/m, with 42% of fleets saying they plan on buying equipment in the next three months. With spot rates at a four-year high following the most recent Roadcheck, and having shrugged off elevated fuel costs, confidence in the cycle upturn is growing. Fleet equipment additions are likely to increase in the second half of the year, as profitability improves and we near the start of EPA’27 low-NOx regulations. Beaten up fleet finances will be the limiting factor for at least the rest of this year.
SUPPLY-DEMAND BALANCE INDEX:
The Supply-Demand Balance Index tightened further in April to 66.9 from 60.5 (SA) in March, on a strong volume improvement, even as capacity turned from net contraction to slight expansion. While this seems inconsistent with a supply-driven cycle, improving volumes at the quality medium and large fleets in our survey sample are more likely the result of reduced industry capacity than goods demand trends. The economy is likely to remain uneven, and effects on inflation and interest rates from the war in Iran curtail the demand outlook, but lower tariffs partly offset these effects. And capacity continues to exit the market, even with growing prebuy demand ahead of EPA’27, largely as new FMCSA rules remove drivers.
PRODUCTIVITY INDEX: 
(miles/tractor)
Fleet productivity increased 8.1 points m/m, to 65.6 (SA) in April from 57.5 in March, on improved volumes and driver-induced capacity constraints. The current driver shortage is likely to keep productivity elevated in the near term.