VOLUME INDEX:
The Volume Index decreased 5.0 points in September to 49.5, seasonally adjusted (SA), from 54.5 in August. Overall, freight demand is growing, but private fleet growth is still resulting in choppy for-hire demand conditions. Durable goods consumption rose 4.2% q/q SAAR in Q2, imports and inventories are growing, and cross-border shipments are increasing. But inconsistency may persist in the near term following two large hurricanes, a port strike, and likely another one in January. With private fleet costs well above for-hire carriers, we expect shippers to eventually shift freight back to the for-hire market, as low orders suggest is starting to take shape.
PRICING INDEX:
The Pricing Index increased 3.9 points in September to 52.4 (SA), from 48.5 (SA) in August. The port strike and hurricanes likely modestly impacted this month’s reading, briefly tightening capacity, but at a recent industry conference, shippers were largely budgeting for modest rate increases in 2025, supported by the record wide gap between private and for-hire costs. And amid ongoing broad volume growth and slowing equipment additions, the market balance seems to be tipping toward rising rates after falling in a record 24 of the past 25 months. While we see modest positive momentum for freight rates in the coming months, the fairly mild downturn in equipment sales suggests a gradual recovery looks likely.
CAPACITY INDEX: 
The Capacity Index increased by 3.2 points m/m to 50.8 in September, from 47.6 in August. This month’s reading marks the first time in fourteen months that capacity has expanded, albeit just slightly. This month’s uptick likely reflects the more stable demand and rate environment, which no longer necessarily signal further retrenchment. Fleet margin pressure suggests little appetite for capacity expansion but slowing private fleet growth is taking pressure off. US Class 8 demand is softening, indicating that tractor fleet growth—a key reason this cycle is the longest on record—may soon be coming to an end. However, further declines are needed for capacity to start tightening.
DRIVERS:
The Driver Availability Index decreased to 53.6 in September, from 55.4 in August. September marks the 28th month in row the index has been at or above 50. Driver availability remains persistently elevated and far from a shortage, partly supported by older drivers sticking around to help with higher living costs, and partly by the rise in migration since the pandemic. That said, driver availability is likely to fall somewhat in the coming months as the FMCSA closes a loophole forcing downgrades in CDLs of drivers in prohibited status. A tightening in the driver market, which could come from the long cyclical lag from lower rates or the baby boomer retirement wave, would help to spur the recovery in rates.
FLEET PURCHASE INTENTIONS: 
Fleet purchase intentions rose m/m, with 46% of respondents planning on buying new equipment in the next three months. Despite September marking the beginning of orders for 2025, fleet purchase intentions remain muted as for-hire fleet budgets are historically tight. Q3’24 is shaping up as the eighth consecutive quarter of y/y margin declines among publicly traded TL carriers, and for-hire conditions remain challenging. With profitability low, interest rates still not far from recent highs, and election uncertainty elevated, purchasing intentions will likely remain soft, though they closely follow spot.
SUPPLY-DEMAND BALANCE:
The Supply-Demand Balance decreased in September to 48.8 (SA), from 56.9 in August, as freight volumes decreased and fleet capacity increased. Private fleet expansion, which is not captured in this indicator, is resulting in a longer period with the market close to balance than in past cycles. Despite the past few months of elevated tractor sales due to mirror supply chain issues in April, slowing US Class 8 tractor sales from here will help to further rebalance and move the cycle forward, albeit slowly. Continued strong US economic growth is leading to improved goods demand and will make its way to the for-hire market as private fleet growth slows.
Disinflation and lower interest rates support the consumer outlook, as rising goods demand and a turning inventory cycle have resulted in improved import volumes. Private fleets are handling an increased share of volumes, which has been the sticking point keeping the for-hire market from turning, but a slowdown in their growth may support an improving for-hire market balance.
PRODUCTIVITY INDEX: 
(miles/tractor)
Fleet productivity fell 2.2 points m/m to 47.2 (SA) in September on lower volumes and an increase in capacity. In general, productivity has been challenged by private fleet pressure in the for-hire market but should improve with volume increases and capacity decreases.