VOLUME INDEX: 
The Volume Index increased 4.8 points in August to 54.5, seasonally adjusted (SA), from 49.7 in July. The improvement reflects both growing goods demand and inventory pre-positioning. Consumption of durable goods rose 4.2% q/q SAAR in Q2, imports and inventories are growing, and cross-border shipments are increasing. Though, pre-positioning ahead of potential east coast port strikes is part of the story. Despite the strength of the US economy over the past year, for-hire demand has been suppressed by the expansion of private fleets in the past 18 months, despite carriers operating costs being ~40% less per mile. Recent data suggest private fleet growth is moderating and is likely to continue. A welcome and necessary development for volumes to return to the for-hire market.
PRICING INDEX:
The Pricing Index decreased 3.3 points in August to 48.5 (SA), from 51.8 (SA) in July. Slowing capacity additions are helping the market to rebalance, but short-term issues have caused US Class 8 tractor sales to be elevated the past two months as the industry works through red-tagged equipment, so capacity additions continued in Q3. Below-replacement levels are required for rates to move higher. Following an extended freight downturn, any easing in price pressure is surely welcome. And with better seasonality on the horizon, improving spot dynamics should result in higher rates.
While we see modest positive momentum for freight rates in the coming months, the extent to which excess capacity was added into a weak freight market the past year and a half suggests a gradual recovery looks likely.
CAPACITY INDEX: 
The Capacity Index decreased by 1.1 points m/m to 4.6 in August, from 47.6 in July. This month’s reading marks the 14th month in a row capacity has declined, the longest streak since the inception of the survey in late 2009. Private fleet capacity additions have continued, which is keeping pressure on for-hire fleet capacity in recent months, but overall, the supply-demand between fleets and capacity looks set to gradually begin to rebalance. As for-hire conditions have yet to pick up much, it’s hard to see capacity turning positive in the coming months, especially as for-hire fleet purchasing intentions remain under pressure.
US Class 8 demand is softening, indicating that tractor fleet growth—a key reason this cycle is the longest on record—may soon be coming to an end. However, further declines are needed for capacity to start tightening.
DRIVERS:
The Driver Availability Index increased to 55.4 in August, from 53.1 in July. August marks the 27th month in row the index has been at or above 50. Driver availability remains persistently elevated and far from a shortage, partly supported by older drivers sticking around to help with higher living costs, and partly by the rise in migration in the past few years.
A tightening in the driver market, which could come from the long cyclical lag from lower rates or the baby boomer retirement wave, would help to spur the recovery in rates.
FLEET PURCHASE INTENTIONS: 
Fleet purchase intentions remain depressed, with only 40% of respondents saying they plan on buying new equipment in the next three months. For-hire fleet budgets are historically tight as orderboards open for 2025, with open order slots still remaining for 2024. Q2’24 marked the seventh consecutive quarter of y/y margin declines among publicly traded TL carriers, and with rates relatively unchanged as we near the end of Q3, for-hire conditions remain challenging. With profitability low, interest rates starting to come down but still high, and election uncertainty elevated, equipment purchasing will continue to be delayed.
SUPPLY-DEMAND BALANCE:
The Supply-Demand Balance increased in August to 56.9 (SA), from 51.1 in July, as freight volumes increased, and fleet capacity decreased. Private fleet expansion, which is not captured in this indicator, is resulting in a longer period with the market close to balance than in past cycles. Despite ongoing private fleet capacity additions in Q3, slowing US Class 8 tractor sales from here will help to further rebalance and move the cycle forward, albeit slowly. Continued strong US economic growth is leading to improved goods demand and seems to be starting to make its way to the for-hire market as private fleet growth moderates.
Disinflation and lower interest rates support the consumer outlook, as rising goods demand and a turning inventory cycle have resulted in improved import volumes. Private fleets are handling an increased share of volumes, which has been the sand in the gears keeping the for-hire market from turning, but recent data suggest we may be on the cusp of change.
PRODUCTIVITY INDEX: 
(miles/tractor)
Fleet productivity ticked down 0.7 points m/m to 49.4 (SA) in August. Productivity has been challenged by private fleet pressure in the for-hire market but should improve with volume increases and continued capacity decreases.