VOLUME INDEX:
The Volume Index decreased 1.9 points to 60.5 (SA) in March, remaining elevated, though with a bit less demand than February, when the new cycle high of 62.4 was aided by severe winter weather in late January. In five of the past seven months, the Volume index has been above 54, a mark reached just twice in the preceding 42 months. As emphasized by the accelerating decline in the Driver Availability Index and the more chronic decline in the Capacity Index, this is largely a supply-driven recovery, though lower tariffs may be helping as well. Even as the outlook for goods demand worsens on spiking fuel prices, for-hire demand is supported by declining supply.
For-hire volumes should continue to benefit from private fleets ceding market share and the potential of post-IEEPA restocking, but the duration of the Iran conflict may alter the course of volume recovery.
PRICING INDEX:
The Freight Rates Index rose 2.6 points m/m to 65.9 in March, building on a 4.5-point m/m gain in February (SA) to reach the highest level since February 2022. While severe winter storms were a factor in tightening capacity, multiple constraints have added momentum to the rate cycle, most recently the spike in diesel costs. Low equipment sales and tighter driver regulations are also reducing capacity and supporting for-hire demand, even in an uneven economy. Tightening supply and demand dynamics are driving rates higher, which is continuing after the weather has warmed.
CAPACITY INDEX: 
The Capacity Index increased 0.9 points m/m, to 49.0 in March from 48.1 in February, the 12th consecutive month and the 31st of the past 33 months in neutral/contraction territory. While rates are signaling capacity to expand again, this is no small challenge, with equipment budgets constrained and driver availability declining. Weather also had an effect in January and February, aiding the improvement. Increased truck orders since the recent news that EPA’27 will still happen, partially, is driving some purchasing, but prebuying will be largely limited to 2H’26, though noncompliance penalties could extend prebuying into early 2027.
Though the freight cycle is beginning to kick into gear, it will likely be hard for fleets to expand capacity amid a more aggressive FMCSA targeting nondomicile drivers and the nationwide anti-immigration drive currently implemented under the Trump administration.
DRIVERS:
The Driver Availability Index decreased 4.5 points, to 35.0 in March from 39.8 in February. While impacted by weather in December and January, the continued drop suggests tighter driver regulations have pushed the market into a driver shortage. The new nondomicile rules took effect in mid-March, but effects of several rule changes are weighing on the market. Driver availability is a key component of capacity in the market, and additional scarcity seems likely, supporting higher freight rates.
The medium and large fleets in our survey reported a steady and loose driver supply through the long freight downturn, and their driver availability isn’t necessarily reflective of the total market. The new driver rules will likely take a few years to fully play out.
FLEET PURCHASE INTENTIONS: 
Fleet purchasing intentions rose 13pps m/m, with 36% of fleets saying they plan on buying equipment in the next three months. Fleet equipment additions are likely to increase in the second half of the year, as profitability improves and we near the start of EPA’27 low-NOx regulations. Despite recent rate improvement, it takes around five months for changes in spot rates to show up in contract rates. As such, many fleets, while anticipating improved financial conditions this year, currently lack the capex to add now.
SUPPLY-DEMAND BALANCE:
The Supply-Demand Balance was tight in February and March at 62.4 and 60.5 (SA), respectively, as capacity contracts and volumes have accelerated. We see only part of the recent gains as weather-driven, and the reversal of those gains was interrupted in March by more tightness caused by surging diesel costs. While the economy is likely to remain uneven and effects on inflation and interest rates from the war in Iran curtail the demand outlook, lower tariffs support the outlook to some degree. But capacity continues to exit the market, even with growing prebuy demand ahead of EPA’27.
PRODUCTIVITY INDEX: 
(miles/tractor)
Fleet productivity decreased 0.2 points m/m, to 57.9 (SA) in March from 58.1 in February, on lower volumes this month. The current driver shortage is likely to keep near-term productivity elevated.