VOLUME INDEX:
The Volume Index showed significant softness for the second straight month, at 43.4 seasonally adjusted (SA) in April, down from 43.6 in March. Even with some degree of pre-tariff shipping happening, it appears the adverse effects of tariffs are already starting to play out. Declining container ship traffic suggests broadly weak volume will continue in the near term, but the 90-day step down in US/China tariffs is spurring significant activity into Q3.
After pre-tariff inventory building in Q1, destocking still seems likely later in the year. Consumer spending has remained strong so far this year, as shrewd consumers move quickly to upgrade durable goods like autos ahead of tariffs. Freight volumes are likely to be dynamic this year.
PRICING INDEX:
The Pricing Index fell 12.1 points m/m in April, to 39.4 (SA) from 51.5 in March, levels not seen since August of 2023, as demand softened following a surge in pre-tariff imports, interrupting the modest momentum in rates. The 12.1-point m/m decline was the third largest in the survey’s 15-year history. The supply side should contract as private fleets end their expansion, tariffs add to equipment costs, and for-hire fleet financials are impacted. However, pricing uncertainty remains elevated with trade policy changing.
Overall, rates are not far removed from bottom-of-cycle levels, and lower demand will further push out a recovery in for-hire freight rates.
CAPACITY INDEX: 
The Capacity Index decreased 4.0 points m/m, to 47.1 in April from 51.1 in March. Unsurprisingly given weak for-hire profits, heightened uncertainty, and higher equipment costs, capacity decreased as fleets choose to delay, or in some cases, opt out completely of new equipment purchases in 2025.
Further capacity declines are likely, a necessary component for the cycle to begin an upswing. Unfortunately for fleets, lower demand related to tariffs will likely prolong the recovery.
DRIVERS:
The Driver Availability Index rose 3.0 points, to 54.0 in April from 51.0 in March.
March marked the 35th consecutive month the index has been at or above 50. A large factor behind the sustained, elevated for-hire driver availability is likely the significant increase in wages during the pandemic. Struggling owner-operators turning in their operating authorities have also provided a steady supply of experienced drivers for fleets. But after three years of weak rates/profitability, investments in driver training are under pressure.
A tighter driver market—which could come from the long cyclical lag from lower rates, the baby boomer retirement wave, or mass deportations—would press truckload rates higher.
FLEET PURCHASE INTENTIONS: 
Fleet purchase intentions decreased 9.5 percentage points (pps) m/m in April, with 27% of respondents planning on buying new equipment in the next three months, well below the 54% long-term average. Unsurprisingly, another tough quarter for carriers in Q1 has lowered CapEx sentiment. Net profit margins in Q1 amongst publicly traded carriers fell to the lowest levels since Q1’10, marking the 9th consecutive quarter of q/q margin declines. The truism of “when truckers make money, they buy trucks” might as well be etched in stoned at the ACT office. Until profitability recovers, equipment spending will remain under pressure.
SUPPLY-DEMAND BALANCE:
The Supply-Demand Balance increased in April, at 46.3 (SA), from 42.4 in March, as freight volumes were weak but flat m/m, and capacity decreased. The recent drop in demand, as tariffs went into effect, has resulted in a looser market balance. Weaker economic activity and lower imports are likely to continue to impact volumes in May and June. With private fleets ending their expansion, and for-hire carriers under strain, capacity should continue to gradually exit the market.
Supply-demand balance is likely to remain at, or below, 50 in the near-term, as lower demand related to the impact of tariffs counters the declines in capacity. The market balance may then rise in Q3, as pre-holiday freight surges into the ports.
PRODUCTIVITY INDEX: 
(miles/tractor)
Fleet productivity decreased 2.6 points m/m, to 48.2 (SA) in April, as weak volumes outweighed the decline in capacity. In general, overcapacity has challenged productivity in the for-hire market, but productivity should move with volumes and counter to changes in capacity.