VOLUME INDEX:
The Volume Index declined 6.0 points m/m, falling to 46.3 (SA) in August, from 52.3 in July, as the pull-forward ahead of August tariff deadlines ended. After considerable volume pull-forwards since late last year, the volume outlook is challenged, though the Supreme Court’s November decision regarding IEEPA tariffs may provide some relief.
Consumer spending trends remain strong, but consumers have so far been insulated from price increases, as most tariff costs have yet to be passed on. Real income growth has slowed and could decline as inflation picks up. The freight downturn, now in its fourth year, is unlikely to pick up while the trade war worsens. However, the private fleet expansion that we see as a key reason behind the long downturn is starting to reverse.
PRICING INDEX:
The Pricing Index increased 1.2 points m/m in August, to 51.9 (SA) from 50.7 in July, on capacity contraction. Post “Liberation Day,” US tractor sales rose back above replacement levels as carriers sought out OEMs’ tariff-free inventory, and trade-impacted soft demand led to weaker than usual rates in May and June. Now that the tariff-free inventory has largely run dry, sales have pulled back, allowing rates to stabilize after the brief injection of capacity the past couple of months.
Given we’re nearly into YEAR 4 of the for-hire downturn, we expect for-hire and private capacity to start exiting the market more quickly, helping one side of the pricing equation. The demand side remains soft, but our checks suggest demand for dedicated capacity is at least starting to increase.
CAPACITY INDEX: 
The Capacity Index decreased 0.6 points m/m, to 45.4 in August from 46.0 in July. Publicly traded TL carriers’ profit margins remain near the lowest levels since 2010. Tariffs have added cost and uncertainty, spurring demand for pre-tariff tractors in Q2, further delaying a for-hire recovery. Renewing bonus depreciation may help at the margin, but not with margins where they are, and major ongoing uncertainty about tariffs and emissions regulations seem to outweigh incentives to invest.
This index has been at or below the neutral 50 level for 25 of the past 27 months.
DRIVERS:
The Driver Availability Index ticked up 1.0 point, to 50.0 in August from 49.0 in July. After falling below 50 for the first time in 37 months June, driver availability has been at or below 50 for three straight months. Fleets are not yet struggling too much at this point, but availability of quality drivers appears to be more of a challenge than in the past few years.
After three years of declining for-hire rates, volumes, and profitability, cost-cutting measures are starting to take drivers and driving schools out of the market. The medium and large fleets in our survey have seen a steady supply through the long freight downturn, but driver availability has recently begun to slowly contract amid an uncertain and soft freight outlook, and the immigration crackdown is likely a factor. While a tighter driver supply is a potential catalyst for a new cycle, demand is needed too.
FLEET PURCHASE INTENTIONS: 
Fleet purchase intentions were flat m/m in August, with 40% of respondents planning on buying new equipment in the next three months. While a relatively strong reading for 2025, it remains well below the 54% long-term average.
Overall, buying sentiment is expected to remain below the long-term average as we enter the 13th quarter of a for-hire downturn, compared to the six-to-eight quarter historical average. As we perpetually say: When truckers make money, they buy trucks. Current conditions remain unsupportive of significant fleet investment. Concerns over tariff costs, ongoing investigations regarding HD vehicles, and uncertain emissions regulations are weighing on sentiment as well.
SUPPLY-DEMAND BALANCE:
The Supply-Demand Balance decreased in August to 51.0 (SA), from 56.4 in July, on weaker volumes following the July pull forward, but was supported by further capacity contractions.
The supply-demand balance is unlikely to improve meaningfully in the short term, as we’re likely near the payback period following the demand surge ahead of tariffs. Additionally, goods inflation is expected to pick up as companies, that have largely forestalled tariff costs thus far, begin to pass costs along in earnest. Weaker goods demand will be counteracted somewhat by capacity contractions, but strong demand and tight supply is what’s needed for a new freight cycle to take hold.
PRODUCTIVITY INDEX: 
(miles/tractor)
Fleet productivity increased 3.3 points m/m, to 53.2 (SA) in August, supported by further capacity deterioration. While improved, the productivity index will likely be choppy in the short term, as demand and capacity likely decline.