VOLUME INDEX:
The Volume Index increased 5.7 points to 62.0, seasonally adjusted (SA), in February, a four-year high, bolstered by January’s large winter storm that buffeted the Midwest, South, and East Coast and created a backlog of freight. Additionally, for-hire volumes are benefiting from slowing/contracting private fleet growth, putting loads into the for-hire market even with the current absence of a broader freight demand recovery. The repeal of IEEPA and the expiration of §122 tariffs in 150 days should lower the effective tariff rate by roughly 10% and may help to trigger a restock. However, higher oil prices following the conflict with Iran have effectively negated any tariff benefit to consumers in the short term.
For-hire volumes should continue to benefit from private fleets ceding market share and the potential of post IEEPA restocking, but the duration of the Iran conflict may alter the course of recovery.
PRICING INDEX:
The Pricing Index rose 5.3 points m/m in February, to 64.1 (SA) from 58.8 in January, as winter storms tightened capacity and aided volumes, creating a backlog of loads. Broadly speaking, pricing has improved this year on sustained capacity exits and choppy, if gradually improving, volumes in the market. Additionally, private fleets ceding growth after a large expansion has driven more loads onto for-hire carriers.
Though the current tightness is partly temporary weather effects, tightening supply and demand dynamics are also driving rates higher and will continue after the weather warms. The sensitivity of current rates speaks to the current inelasticity of supply, and with produce season and Roadcheck around the corner, the window for rate givebacks is fairly short.
CAPACITY INDEX: 
The Capacity Index ticked down 0.4 points m/m, to 48.0 in February from 48.4 in January, the 11th consecutive month in neutral/contraction territory. Capacity continues to exit as current levels of profitability, despite recent pricing improvements, remain a constraint on investment. Weather also had an effect, allowing for some improvement in the coming months. Increased truck orders since the news that EPA’27 will still happen, partially, is driving some purchasing, but capacity additions will likely be modest until we get closer to 2027.
Though the freight cycle is beginning to kick into gear, it will likely be hard for fleets to expand capacity amid a more aggressive FMCSA targeting nondomicile drivers and nationwide anti-immigration drive currently implemented under the Trump administration.
DRIVERS:
The Driver Availability Index decreased 4.5 points, to 40.5 in February from 45.0 in January. While no doubt impacted by weather in December and January, the continued and meaningful drop suggests tighter driver regulations are beginning to affect the market. New nondomicile rules don’t take effect until mid-March, so the tightness beginning in January is likely due to drivers exiting the market voluntarily. Driver availability is a key component of market capacity, and additional scarcity seems likely, supporting higher freight rates.
The medium and large fleets in our survey have seen a steady and loose driver supply through the long freight downturn, but they are now beginning to see signs of tightness, or at least a lack of qualified drivers. The new driver rules may accelerate the pace of capacity exits initially but will likely take a few years to fully play out.
FLEET PURCHASE INTENTIONS: 
Fleet purchase intentions fell 24pps m/m in February, with only 19% of respondents planning on buying new equipment in the next three months, well below the 54% long-term average. February is always a weak month for Class 8 sales, and after four years of a depressed market, margins still aren’t at levels needed to support a mass refreshment of equipment. Recent improvement in rates and profitability, coupled with clarity around EPA’27, will likely spur increased sales in the second half of 2026.
The inability for a large prebuy this year ahead of regulatory cost increases should keep the market from overcapacity, setting up further rate improvement in 2027. Though, the length and breadth of our Iran incursion is a risk to that thesis.
SUPPLY-DEMAND BALANCE:
The Supply-Demand Balance increased in February to 63.9 (SA), from 58.4 in January, a 4.5 year high as volumes increased and capacity continued to contract. While rate gains may ease as the weather improves, FMCSA nondomicile actions should tighten the driver supply further, and as private fleets contract, for-hire demand should improve solely on the return of market share that was ceded between 2022–2025. The ending of IEEPA tariffs and the impermanent nature of §122 tariffs may help to lay the groundwork for improved inflation and some restocking, but higher oil prices may cancel out those tailwinds.
PRODUCTIVITY INDEX: 
(miles/tractor)
Fleet productivity increased 2.7 points m/m, to 59.7 (SA) in February from 57.0 in January, on the m/m improvement in volumes and capacity and driver contractions.