VOLUME INDEX:
The Volume Index fell 4.5 points in March to 43.6, seasonally adjusted (SA), from 48.1 in February. While spot load postings were strong in March, this is consistent with ongoing softness in the Cass Freight Index®. The weak reading in our survey, may be related to the later timing of the Chinese New Year this year, creating some sub-seasonality effects from February to March. Additionally, while inventory has been pulled ahead, uncertainty may be causing businesses to sit on inventory longer than usual, as they take a wait-and-see approach to current proceedings.
Freight volumes will likely remain choppy as pre-tariff inventories are drawn down.
PRICING INDEX:
The Pricing Index rose 1.5 points m/m in March to 51.5 (SA), from 50.1 in January. Amid a decline in volumes and increase in capacity this month, rates ticked up slightly. Capacity contractions, particularly among private fleets, may be the reason for the modest price increase m/m. US tractor sales fell below replacement levels the first three months of the year. For context, January was the first time in three years such levels had been seen.
Freight rates are not that far removed from the bottom and will contend with lower demand due to tariffs, which increases the odds of a longer gradual recovery.
CAPACITY INDEX: 
The Capacity Index increased 4.0 points m/m to 51.1 in March, from 47.1 in February. Steel and aluminum tariffs, reciprocal tariffs, and tariffs on China will directly add to the cost of tractors and trailers. The increase in for-hire capacity in March was likely fleets planning ahead of equipment price increases.
While freight fundamentals don’t yet call for for-hire capacity expansion, the inflationary cost of tariffs may lead some carriers to pull deliveries ahead. Many though, (see survey results) have taken a wait and see approach to capital spending.
DRIVERS:
The Driver Availability Index fell 2.1 points to 51.0 in March, from 52.3 in February. While still improving, driver availability has slowed the past 17 months.
March marked the 34th consecutive month the index has been at or above 50. A large factor behind the sustained, elevated for-hire driver availability is likely the significant increase in wages during the pandemic. Struggling owner-operators turning in their operating authorities have also provided a steady supply of experienced drivers for fleets. But after three years of weak rates/profitability, investments in driver training are under pressure.
A tighter driver market—which could come from the long cyclical lag from lower rates, the baby boomer retirement wave, or mass deportations—would press truckload rates higher.
FLEET PURCHASE INTENTIONS: 
Fleet purchase intentions increased 11 percentage points (pps) m/m, with 36% of respondents planning on buying new equipment in the next three months, sharply below the 53% historical average for March. The 11pp jump m/m may be related to fleets looking to buy before equipment prices rise, but broadly speaking, buying sentiment remains muted. The biggest imposition to buying is still the low levels of freight profitability. Q4’24 net margins were the lowest since 2010, and after 2+ years with profits under pressure, budgets are tight.
SUPPLY-DEMAND BALANCE:
The Supply-Demand Balance fell in March, at 42.4 (SA), from 51.1 in February, as freight volumes decreased and capacity increased. With Chinese New Year occurring later this year, volumes may have underperformed seasonality on calendar effects. Capacity in March was likely temporary, with carriers looking to get ahead of equipment price increases.
Private fleet expansion, which is not captured in this indicator, has resulted in a longer period with the market close to balance than in past cycles. Goods inflation and a weakening consumer outlook due to tariffs may limit freight volume growth in the coming months. This situation could lead to weaker manufacturing/industrial output if enacted.
While capacity is beginning to come out of the supply side, the trade war may significantly impact demand.
PRODUCTIVITY INDEX: 
(miles/tractor)
Fleet productivity decreased 1.4 points m/m to 50.8 (SA) in March as volumes fell and capacity increased. In general, overcapacity has challenged productivity in the for-hire market, but productivity should move with volumes and counter to changes in capacity.