VOLUME INDEX:
The Volume Index showed significant softness for a third straight month, at 42.5 seasonally adjusted (SA) in May, down from 43.4 in April. The myriad impacts of tariffs and opaqueness regarding future trade decisions have destroyed business planning and slowed economic activity. While we may see some improvement in trade volumes ahead of the August 9th China trade decision, the pull-forward of freight into Q1 has necessitated a payback later this year. Consumers, so far, have continued to spend, but higher prices due to tariff-driven inflation is expected to weigh on purchasing. Given the rollercoaster of policy under the new administration, freight volumes are likely to be dynamic this year.
PRICING INDEX:
The Pricing Index rose 8.4 points m/m in May, to 47.8 (SA) from 39.4 in April, as Roadcheck briefly tightened capacity. With private fleets’ market share grab the past two years, and with a slower freight growth outlook because of tariffs, the induced tightness was unlikely to hold. After a brief surge, spot rates fell to pre-Roadcheck levels after rising during the DOT’s national event.
The supply-side should contract as private fleets decelerate fleet growth and for-hire fleets remain on the sidelines. Rising equipment costs due to tariffs further that case, but the flip side to tariffs is slower freight market growth, which will prolong the recovery in the for-hire sector.
CAPACITY INDEX: 
The Capacity Index decreased 0.7 points m/m, to 46.4 in May from 47.1 in April. Roadcheck may have contributed to some capacity shedding this month amongst the fleets in our survey, but overall market conditions are the prevailing factor behind the for-hire fleets’ capacity reductions. Q1 saw publicly traded TL carriers net profit margins fall to the lowest levels since the GFC, and if you factor in that fleets now have the benefit of the 2017 tax cuts, you could argue profitability conditions, or lack thereof, are worse than during the GFC. On top of that, steel, aluminum, and parts tariffs have added thousands to the cost of a tractor, and further increases may be incoming. As result of increasingly thin margins, trade/economic uncertainty, and equipment cost increases, many fleets are opting to pause or stop buying completely in 2025.
DRIVERS:
The Driver Availability Index tightened 3.1 points, to 50.9 in May from 54.0 in April.
May marked the 37th consecutive month the index has been at or above 50. A large factor behind the sustained, elevated for-hire driver availability is likely the significant increase in wages during the pandemic. Struggling owner-operators turning in their operating authorities have also provided a steady supply of experienced drivers for fleets. But after three years of weak rates/profitability, investments in driver training are under pressure. Roadcheck may have contributed to the still positive, but lower level of driver availability in May too.
A question we now frequently get is whether the English fluency requirements for CDL holders announced by Trump will have an impact on the driver population. In short, unlikely. English proficiency requirements for CDL holders have been on the books since the inception of the CDL, so at best, any capacity takeout is likely to be marginal.
FLEET PURCHASE INTENTIONS: 
Fleet purchase intentions were flat m/m in May, with 27% of respondents planning on buying new equipment in the next three months, half the 54% long-term average. Generationally weak profits, economic uncertainty, and in the case of EPA’27, regulatory uncertainty, have completely altered capital planning for the year. Fleets are now in the unenviable position of either being unable to purchase new equipment, the most likely case given current fundamentals, or unwilling to purchase as they wait for policy decisions to settle and provide future clarity. With current Class 8 inventories at record levels, some fleets may decide to buy tariff-less tractors siting in inventory, but with profits at GFC levels, not many can dip into that pool.
SUPPLY-DEMAND BALANCE:
The Supply-Demand Balance was essentially flat in May, at 46.1 (SA), from 46.3 in April, as freight volumes and capacity each ticked down slightly m/m. The recent drop in demand, as tariffs went into effect, has resulted in a looser market balance. Weaker economic activity and lower imports are likely to continue to impact volumes in May and June. With private fleets ending their expansion, and for-hire carriers under strain, capacity should continue to gradually exit the market.
Supply-demand balance is likely to remain at, or below, 50 in the near term, as lower demand related to the impact of tariffs counters the declines in capacity.
PRODUCTIVITY INDEX: 
(miles/tractor)
Fleet productivity rocketed up 15.7 points m/m, to 63.9 (SA) in May, as Roadcheck artificially tightened the market. Productivity is set to fall as the artificial impact of Roadcheck goes away in June.