--- title: Freight Focus description: ACT Freight Forecast report provides forecasts through 2027 for volumes and contract rates for the truckload, less-than-truckload, and intermodal sectors of the transportation industry, including the Cass Shipments Index and Cass Truckload Linehaul Index®. image: https://pages.actresearch.net/hubfs/2026%20Press%20Releases/September/DAT-US-Dry-Van-Spot-Rate-%26-Driver-Availability.png --- [![ACT Research Horizontal Logo](https://pages.actresearch.net/hs-fs/hubfs/Media%20Kit%20/Logo/ACT%20Research%20Horizontal%20Logo.png?width=1500&height=264&name=ACT%20Research%20Horizontal%20Logo.png "ACT Research Horizontal Logo")](https://www.actresearch.net/) # OCTOBER 2026 FREIGHT FOCUS ## Capacity Tightening Early Ahead of Holiday Season   Our freight rate and volume forecasting services are the bridge between ACT's leadership in Class 8 forecasting and award-winning economic analysis, with ACT's transportation industry experience. ### STAY UP-TO-DATE ON THE FREIGHT MARKETS MONTHLY > “All-in, spot rates have been steady for the past few months, but the diesel spike left less in the spot rate, net fuel. After dropping in Q3 due mostly to spiking diesel costs, spot rates are rebounding in October as capacity tightens earlier than usual this year,”   # ACT's Top 5 Freight Focus - October 2026 ### [1. The shipments component of the Cass Freight Index rose 2.3% m/m and 1.9% y/y in September, the second straight y/y gain after a 3.5-year downturn by this measure, the longest on record.](https://www.cassinfo.com/freight-audit-payment/cass-transportation-indexes/september-2026) ### 2. Aggregate DAT contract rates—combining dry van, reefer, and flatbed—were down 1¢ m/m in September to $2.52 per mile, in line with the seasonal pattern, and up 18% y/y.   ### 3. DAT US dry van TL spot rates fell 3¢ m/m in September, net fuel, up 33% y/y.   ### 4. US  Class 8 tractor orders rose to about 10,300 units in September from 8,580 in August.   ### 5. In the first half of October, dry van spot rates, net fuel (SA), regained essentially all of the ground lost to higher diesel costs over the past few months.   ![DAT Dry Van Load/Truck Ratio & Spot Rates](https://pages.actresearch.net/hs-fs/hubfs/2026%20Press%20Releases/October/FF%20DryVan%20Spot%20Rate%20Sep%202026.png?width=867&height=609&name=FF%20DryVan%20Spot%20Rate%20Sep%202026.png "DAT Dry Van Load/Truck Ratio & Spot Rates") DAT spot load/truck ratios have improved considerably in recent weeks, particularly adjusting for seasonality. In the first half of October, dry van spot rates, net fuel (SA), regained essentially all of the ground lost to higher diesel costs over the past few months. Capacity remains tight as regulatory and cost pressures continue to shape the U.S. freight market, according to the latest release of ACT’s [Freight Forecast: Rate and Volume OUTLOOK](https://www.actresearch.net/reports-data/forecasts/freight-rate-forecast) report for October 2026. Despite a seasonally soft spot market in early fall, tightening supply conditions and record diesel prices are keeping upward pressure on rates heading into the peak shipping season. “All-in, spot rates have been steady for the past few months, but the diesel spike left less in the spot rate, net fuel. After dropping in Q3 due mostly to spiking diesel costs, spot rates are rebounding in October as capacity tightens earlier than usual this year,” said Tim Denoyer, ACT Research’s Vice President and Senior Analyst. “If it’s already tight now, it’s a pretty good bet it will still be tight when holiday seasonality reduces capacity in a few weeks. “With the supply response limited in part by the uncertain engine transition and tighter driver regulations, market tightness will persist well into 2027. Even as overall freight demand remains moderate, these supply-side challenges are driving the current rate cycle. “The extraordinary environment is also driving shifting modal dynamics, with intermodal volumes on pace for a record year and LTL tonnage growing as tight truckload capacity pushes more freight into adjacent sectors,” Denoyer continued. “Shippers are increasingly leveraging intermodal’s cost advantage, with current contract rates 40% below dry van truckload rates.” ### Freight Forecast Report Overview The monthly 62-page ACT*[Freight Forecast](https://www.actresearch.net/reports-data/forecasts/freight-rate-forecast)* report provides analysis and forecasts for a broad range of U.S. freight measures, including the Cass Freight Index, Cass Truckload Linehaul Index, and DAT spot and contract rates by trailer type for the U.S. and Canada. The service provides monthly, quarterly, and annual predictions for the TL, LTL, and intermodal markets over a two- to three-year time horizon, including capacity, volumes, and rates. The *Freight Forecast* provides unmatched detail on the freight rate outlook, helping companies across the supply chain plan with greater visibility and less uncertainty. ### ACT Research Overview ACT Research is recognized as the leading publisher of commercial vehicle truck, trailer, and bus industry data, market analysis and forecasts for the North America and China markets. ACT’s analytical services are used by all major North American truck and trailer manufacturers and their suppliers, as well as banking and investment companies. ACT Research is a contributor to the Blue Chip Economic Indicators and a member of the Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Panel. ACT Research executives have received peer recognition, including election to the Board of Directors of the National Association for Business Economics, appointment as Consulting Economist to the National Private Truck Council, and the Lawrence R. Klein Award for Blue Chip Economic Indicators’ Most Accurate Economic Forecast over a four-year period. ACT Research senior staff members have earned accolades including Chicago Federal Reserve Automotive Outlook Symposium Best Overall Forecast, Wall Street Journal Top Economic Outlook, and USA Today Top 10 Economic Forecasters. More information can be found at [www.actresearch.net](http://www.actresearch.net).   ![Tim Denoyer Headshot](https://pages.actresearch.net/hs-fs/hubfs/Tim%20Denoyer%20Media/Tim%20Denoyer%20Headshot.jpg?width=200&height=280&name=Tim%20Denoyer%20Headshot.jpg)Tim Denoyer, VP & Senior Analyst ACT Research  [Click here to connect on LinkedIn](https://www.linkedin.com/in/timothydenoyer/)   ## DOWNLOAD YOUR FREE FREIGHT FORECAST SAMPLE Key Items Covered Monthly In the ACT Freight Forecast: - ACT Class 8 Tractor Sales Forecast - Cass Shipment Index Forecast® - Cass Truckload Linehaul Index® Forecast - DAT Dry Van Spot Rate Forecast - DAT Refrigerated Spot Rate Forecast - DAT Flatbed Spot Rate Forecast - LTL Tonnage and Yield Forecast - Intermodal Load and Rate Forecast - U.S. Economic Forecast ### STRATEGIC, FORWARD-LOOKING DATA FOR YOUR BUSINESS © 2026 • Americas Commercial Transportation Research Co. 4440 Middle Rd. Columbus, IN 47203 812.379.2085 [trucks@actresearch.net](mailto:trucks@actresearch.net)