DAT U.S. dry van truckload spot rates, net fuel, rose 47% year-over-year in July to $2.41 per mile, according to the latest release of the ACT Freight Forecast: Rate and Volume OUTLOOK report for August 2026. While the truckload market
remains supply-driven, recent months have seen spot demand ease from its highs and driver availability begin to improve, signaling a seasonal lull and moderating the pace of rate increases.
The report notes that capacity constraints from regulatory changes and enforcement continue to underpin a supply-side rate recovery, even as macroeconomic headwinds and soft consumer demand weigh on overall freight volumes. Equipment posts are at historic lows, and aggregate DAT contract rates rose 8¢ month-over-month in July to $2.50 per mile, up 17% year-over-year. Intermodal volumes are on a record-breaking pace, while LTL tonnage has turned positive for the first time in years, reflecting freight shifting to adjacent modes as truckload capacity tightens.
“The pendulum has swung back to fleets in this early-cycle, supply-driven environment,” said Tim Denoyer, ACT Research’s Vice President and Senior Analyst. “Tight driver availability and persistent regulatory constraints are keeping capacity tight, but recent pay increases and softer seasonal demand are supporting some improvement in driver supply. We expect the market to remain sensitive to seasonal shifts, with rates likely to firm again as we approach year-end.”
Freight Forecast Report Overview
The monthly 62-page ACT Freight Forecast report provides analysis and forecasts for a broad range of U.S. freight measures, including the Cass Freight Index, Cass Truckload Linehaul Index, and DAT spot and contract rates by trailer type for the U.S. and Canada. The service provides monthly, quarterly, and annual predictions for the TL, LTL, and intermodal markets over a two- to three-year time horizon, including capacity, volumes, and rates. The Freight Forecast provides unmatched detail on the freight rate outlook, helping companies across the supply chain plan with greater visibility and less uncertainty.
ACT Research Overview
ACT Research is recognized as the leading publisher of commercial vehicle truck, trailer, and bus industry data, market analysis and forecasts for the North America and China markets. ACT’s analytical services are used by all major North American truck and trailer manufacturers and their suppliers, as well as banking and investment companies. ACT Research is a contributor to the Blue Chip Economic Indicators and a member of the Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Panel. ACT Research executives have received peer recognition, including election to the Board of Directors of the National Association for Business Economics, appointment as Consulting Economist to the National Private Truck Council, and the Lawrence R. Klein Award for Blue Chip Economic Indicators’ Most Accurate Economic Forecast over a four-year period. ACT Research senior staff members have earned accolades including Chicago Federal Reserve Automotive Outlook Symposium Best Overall Forecast, Wall Street Journal Top Economic Outlook, and USA Today Top 10 Economic Forecasters. More information can be found at www.actresearch.net.
Tim Denoyer, VP & Senior Analyst
ACT Research
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