The recent strength in spot rates is going up against a surge in diesel prices, as discussed in the latest release of the Freight Forecast: Rate and Volume OUTLOOK report.
“Since there is generally no fuel surcharge in the spot market, it’s remarkable that spot rates have risen about as much as fuel costs in the past few weeks,” said Tim Denoyer, ACT Research’s Vice President and Senior Analyst.
“Diesel costs spiked 25¢–30¢ per mile for TL fleets, which typically comes out of the spot market trucker’s pocket. But, with a lot of marginal fleets on the edge, the jump in diesel prices tightened capacity almost immediately, with spot dynamics tightening through March, demonstrating a tight market for the first time in about four years.
“The extra $1.50 per gallon is a new capacity constraint on the TL market. The TL rate outlook has risen as tighter driver and equipment availability drive spot market momentum, with a few signs of improving demand,” Denoyer concluded.
Freight Forecast Report Overview
The monthly 62-page ACT Freight Forecast report provides analysis and forecasts for a broad range of U.S. freight measures, including the Cass Freight Index, Cass Truckload Linehaul Index, and DAT spot and contract rates by trailer type for the U.S. and Canada. The service provides monthly, quarterly, and annual predictions for the TL, LTL, and intermodal markets over a two- to three-year time horizon, including capacity, volumes, and rates. The Freight Forecast provides unmatched detail on the freight rate outlook, helping companies across the supply chain plan with greater visibility and less uncertainty.
ACT Research Overview
ACT Research is recognized as the leading publisher of commercial vehicle truck, trailer, and bus industry data, market analysis and forecasts for the North America and China markets. ACT’s analytical services are used by all major North American truck and trailer manufacturers and their suppliers, as well as banking and investment companies. ACT Research is a contributor to the Blue Chip Economic Indicators and a member of the Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Panel. ACT Research executives have received peer recognition, including election to the Board of Directors of the National Association for Business Economics, appointment as Consulting Economist to the National Private Truck Council, and the Lawrence R. Klein Award for Blue Chip Economic Indicators’ Most Accurate Economic Forecast over a four-year period. ACT Research senior staff members have earned accolades including Chicago Federal Reserve Automotive Outlook Symposium Best Overall Forecast, Wall Street Journal Top Economic Outlook, and USA Today Top 10 Economic Forecasters. More information can be found at www.actresearch.net.
Tim Denoyer, VP & Senior Analyst
ACT Research
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