ABOUT
What: Since 1986, ACT Research has been the leader in commercial vehicle data, market analysis, and forecasting services, providing timely and vital information to the marketplace. As a benefit to subscribers, ACT Research holds two events per year to provide an opportunity for discussions, professional insights, and networking.
The ACT Research team will provide the N.A. Commercial Vehicle & Transportation Industries Outlook for 2024-2028. In addition, we will be hosting industry expert guests to discuss the current and future health of the industry to support your planning and budgeting.
Why Participate: Obtain valuable perspectives on the commercial vehicle (CV) and transportation industries from the organization renowned for its top-tier North American Commercial Vehicle OUTLOOK. ACT Research received the prestigious 2019 Lawrence R. Klein Blue Chip Award for our exceptional forecast accuracy.
Who Participates: Those joining us are industry trailblazers and decision-makers, including top management and C-Suite executives from their respective OEMs, Tier 1 & 2 suppliers, new entrant OEMs, technology suppliers, and a variety of financial institutions.
What Others Say: "[ACT Seminar] is a can't miss...an incredible group of people across the industry; you have OEMs, tier 1s, fleets, start-ups, investment side, sell side. A great lineup of speakers and panels, something that you rarely get at conferences like this." -Robert Brown, Chief Strategy Officer, Spartan
When & Where: Market Vitals: The Current & Future Health of the Industry will be held
August 21-22, 2024 at The Commons at 300 Washington St., Columbus, IN 47201
Event sponsored by:
DAY 1 SESSIONS
WEDNESDAY, AUGUST 21
10:00 AM
NEW - NETWORKING BRUNCH
- The Commons - 300 Washington St., Columbus, IN 47201
12:00 PM
WELCOME/REGISTRATION
Thank You To Our Name Badge Sponsor:
1:00 PM
FREIGHT FORECAST: SEISMIC SHIFT IN FREIGHT
Join us for a market update with insights straight from the nation’s largest trucking marketplace, DAT. Our very own Tim Denoyer will provide his view of the freight of the nation, and will be joined by the ever-illuminating Dean Croke from DAT. We’ll focus on the long list of what’s different this time around, including a strong industry balance sheet, post-pandemic supply chain restructuring, and costly looming emissions rules. We’ll dig into how these factors are contributing to the length of the current downcycle, implications for the future of the freight cycle, and how they inform our forecasts.
- Tim Denoyer, VP & Sr. Analyst - ACT Research
- Dean Croke, Principal Analyst - DAT Freight & Analytics
1:45 PM
FREIGHT PERSPECTIVES PANEL
Often referred to as our “boots on the ground” session, we’ll learn about industry conditions from insightful industry participants. Our good friends Brad Delco and David Spencer will provide their viewpoints respectively from JB Hunt, one of the nation's leading multimodal transportation companies, and Arrive Logistics, a top truckload logistics provider. Our panelists will bring insights that no data set can capture on topics ranging from business trends across modes, owner / operator capacity, truck driver dynamics, cargo theft, bid compliance, and market vulnerability. As always, we’ll wrap up with audience Q&A.
- David Spencer, VP Market Intelligence - Arrive Logistics
- Brad Delco, Senior VP, Finance - J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc.
- Moderator: Tim Denoyer, VP & Sr. Analyst - ACT Research
3:30 PM
FIRESIDE CHAT WITH SHERRY SANGER FROM PENSKE TRANSPORTATION SOLUTIONS
Get ready for an insightful and provocative discussion of transportation and trucking trends, industry strategic challenges, and the deployment of new technologies -- in every dimension from EV powertrains to reaching truck operators via social media. Sherry Sanger is one of the trucking industry’s leading executives, helping to shape the future of the industry. Sherry’s presentation will be one you won’t want to miss, and there will be ample time for a Q&A segment that will be so compelling you won’t even be thinking about how hungry you are for dinner.
- Sherry Sanger, EVP Strategy and Marketing - Penske
- Jim Meil, Principal, Industry Analysis - ACT Research
5:00 PM
CLOSING THOUGHTS
6:00 PM
NETWORKING DINNER
- ACT Research Office - 4440 Middle Rd., Columbus, IN 47203
DAY 2 SESSIONS
THURSDAY, AUGUST 22
7:30 AM
CONTINENTAL BREAKFAST & REGISTRATION
Thank You To Our Name Badge Sponsor:
8:00 AM
ECONOMIC FORECAST: SOFT LANDING WITH POTENTIAL TURBULENCE AHEAD
David Teolis, Chief Economist, and Jim Meil, Principal of Industry Analysis, will delve into the critical issues surrounding the US economic outlook. With inflation showing signs of cooling and the labor market easing, speculation is mounting that the Fed will lower its policy rate at the upcoming September FOMC meeting. However, the path to a soft landing remains uncertain, with various disruptors potentially steering the economy off course. David Teolis will present ACT’s economic outlook, analyzing key trends in inflation and employment while offering a detailed analysis of critical sectors such as consumer goods, business investment, housing, and manufacturing. Jim Meil will take a deeper dive into the manufacturing sector, combining an overview of sector basics, an exploration as to why current conditions are unique, and a review of why manufacturing is a critical sector for freight transportation. Given the abundant risks and uncertainties, from geopolitical conflicts and global trade tensions to the impact of AI, fiscal debt sustainability, and the forthcoming US election, our panel will likely spark a lively and thought-provoking Q&A session.
- David Teolis, Chief Economist - ACT Research
- Moderator: Jim Meil, Principal, Industry Analysis - ACT Research
9:45 AM
CLASS 8 FORECAST
At Inflection: Production resets don’t come along often—think the downturns that started in 1H’00, 1H’07, 2H’15, and 2H’19. In the quarter following each of those six-month periods, build fell by an average of 36%, with -22% the smallest decrement. Our forecast currently anticipates the Q4’24 build rate to be nearly 22% below the 1H’24 rate. While the forecast does not call for a wholesale retreat—bright spots remain—the misalignment of orders, production, and sales ytd’24 have led to materially lower backlogs, sharply higher inventories, and plenty of questions heading into 2025. With lingering overcapacity that has left for-hire carrier profits at generationally low levels, do those carriers step up and begin prebuying in 2025? And, after refreshing their fleets/taking market share/prebuying in 2023 and 2024, will private fleets remain aggressive? As we build our forecast thesis, and barring caveats, these are the critical determinants of Class 8 production in 2025.
- Kenny Vieth, President & Sr. Analyst - ACT Research
10:30 AM
AN OEM'S VIEW OF THE CLASS 8 MARKET
Allegedly, “may you live in interesting times” is an ancient curse. For the OEMs, the remainder of this decade represents an unbroken string of “interesting times” through which they will have to navigate. Not only does the industry continue to chart its shorter-term course through pandemic-related dislocations, the longer-term horizon will require deft navigation skills: In addition to the market’s always-on competitive pressures amid economic ebbs and flows, the industry is also being challenged by myriad new technologies and the most impactful regulatory scheme in two decades. Making the upcoming technological and regulatory landscape more challenging is the intersection of two, for which demand dislocations are likely through the forecast horizon.
- Diane Hames, Vice President, Commercial Strategy - Navistar, Inc.
- Kenny Vieth, President & Sr. Analyst - ACT Research
11:15 AM
USED TRUCKS MARKET REVIEW AND OUTLOOK - NORMAL IS JUST AHEAD
Like numerous segments of the economy and business, the used truck market continues to search for balance. Ron Long will bring the unique perspective of a dealer selling both new and used trucks as he and Steve discuss the current state of the market, expectations for the future, and the challenges that stand between the two.
- Ron Long, President & CEO - Premier Truck Group
- Steve Tam, VP, Analyst - ACT Research
12:00 PM
NETWORKING LUNCH
1:00 PM
COMMERCIAL VEHICLE DECARBONIZATION FORECAST, REGULATIONS & INDUSTRY UPDATE
The commercial vehicle industry is facing the challenges of decarbonization and zero-emissions regulation requirements, and ACT Research has been providing research and analysis to our customers to help guide them as they navigate these challenges. The electrification team at ACT Research will share with seminar participants our current decarbonization forecast along with a discussion on regulations, infrastructure, technology developments, as well as key industry updates.
- Lydia Vieth, Research Analyst, Electrification & Autonomy - ACT Research
- Ann Rundle, VP, Electrification & Autonomy - ACT Research
1:45 PM
US TRAILER MARKET: FROM THE FRONTLINE TO THE FORECAST
Sean Kenney, CEO of Hyundai Translead, will join ACT’s Kenny Vieth and Jennifer McNealy to discuss the US trailer market outlook. Trailer industry backlogs are falling, and orders are weak amid flagging support. Pent-up pandemic demand has been exhausted and for-hire carrier profitability remains stuck at a low ebb. If this weren’t enough, add in an expensive EPA emissions regulation that favors tractor investment. In the immediate term, there does not appear to be relief in sight as tractor market overcapacity continues to outweigh growing freight volumes. We will explore the how, where, why, and when questions of demand, as the market looks to identify the bottom of the trough and the exit to greener (if not greenest) pastures. On top of that framework, we will delve into some highlights from our nearly complete Mexican Trailer Market project.
- Sean Kenney, CEO - Hyundai Translead
- Kenny Vieth, President & Sr. Analyst - ACT Research
- Jennifer McNealy, Director, Research Analysis and Publications - ACT Research
2:45 PM
MEDIUM DUTY MARKET IS ABOUT TO GET A LOT MORE EXCITING
If you have ever purchased anything online and had it delivered in a few hours, there is a good chance a medium duty vehicle played a part in the transaction. Changes throughout consumption and distribution patterns are likely only just beginning. The same is also true for decarbonization and other technological advancements. Shaun Skinner is an industry innovator and will share his views on initiatives at his company and in the broader industry as he and Steve explore the medium duty market and where it is headed.
- Shaun Skinner, President - ISUZU
- Steve Tam, VP, Analyst - ACT Research
4:00 PM
CLOSING THOUGHTS
